Best bet on Monday's ultra-trappy Bath card is William Muir's Grayswood in the 16:00, the second division of a low-grade thirteen furlong handicap. It's fair to say that the son of Dalakhani hasn't lived up to early expectations, with his trainer opining that he might turn into a Derby contender before he'd set foot on a racecourse. Still a maiden after ten starts, he's certainly been disappointing, particularly on turf, but there are reasons for believing he can begin to make amends today.
Grayswood was tried in cheekpieces at Kempton last week, and put up a career-best performance in going down narrowly to the well-ridden Prospera, with several talented performers behind in that competitive 0-85 event. The most pleasing aspect of that performance was the way he rallied after being headed, as he's been a weak finisher more often than not. It's pretty safe to say that a repeat of that effort would win today, as he was facing a much better class of opponent than he does today, where he drops to lowly 0-60 company from a much-reduced turf mark.
There's the rub, of course. Grayswood hasn't yet shown the ability on turf that he has on Kempton's polytrack, and backing him to run to the same level is clearly taking a rather optimistic viewpoint. On the other hand, the handicapper has given him a big chance by dropping him markedly in the weights for his last 2 runs of this surface, and it's hard to be adamant that he won't show himself much better at some point given his limited opportunities. He is, after all, a half-brother to the smart US turf performer Ticker Tape, out of a half-sister to Racing Post Trophy winner Crowded House. His pedigree is one of a fast-ground turf performer, and he's only had one opportunity to run on a sound surface in his career to date. He was far from disgraced in a much stronger race than this at Leicester last month, and is worth sticking with from what may look an exceptionally lenient mark.
Another horse who is overpriced based on a single poor run on turf is Silver Alliance (15:30), who saw a good run of form come to an end at Windsor last month, but has been given six weeks to recover from that moderate run, and had previously run better than the bare result at Goodwood's "Glorious" meeting. That followed a brace of wins under today's much improved rider at Yarmouth in April and June.
The son of Proclamation showed he wasn't handicapped out of things at Goodwood, making rapid progress on the bridle before getting involved in a bit of barging around a furlong out, and fading as those exertions told. He's usually a strong traveller, and simply looked jaded at Windsor, so ought to be freshened up by a short break. This is a tough race, and winning won't be easy, but Silver Alliance has the tools to take a good position from a wide draw (not the negative it might be at Bath), and he looks nailed on to trade much shorter than his pre-race price. Current odds of 66/1+ are simply insulting.
While Silver Alliance appeals as a back-to-lay option in that contest, the one who they all have to beat is Appease, and easy winner of a mile maiden on his belated return at Kempton recently, and one who is open to any amount of improvement now tackling this two-furlong longer trip. A brother to Ballet Move, who won over fifteen furlongs for Andre Fabre, and out of an eleven-furlong winner, Appease is likely to step up on what he's shown to date, having had his sole juvenile outing over six furlongs. The Kempton win was thoroughly professional, and while he's got to prove himself on turf after a fairly quick turnaround, he's potentially a class apart, and is hardly a prohibitive price.
Recommendations:
All at Bath
Back Appease @ [5.4] in the 15:30 (NB)
Back Silver Alliance @ [55.0] in the 15:30 (lay stake back in running)
Back Grayswood @ [7.2] in the 15:30 (NAP)
Monday, 30 September 2013
Saturday, 28 September 2013
No Penance For Confessional
Saturday's best value bet comes, not at the headquarters of Flat racing, but in a big-field sprint at Haydock, where course specialist Confessional is hugely overpriced in the Betfair Supports Racing Welfare Handicap at 15:30. Tim Easterby's son of Dubawi never runs a poor race at the Newton-le-Willows venue, with his record over the minimum trip there comprising two wins and two seconds from just five runs, with the other effort a highly creditable fifth in the Temple Stakes.
Confessional again showed his liking for C&D with an impressive win earlier in the month, when always travelling exuberantly towards the fore, and able to be called the likeliest winner long before the winning line. He was pitched into the Portland under a penalty next time, but simply had no chance from a draw on the far side, with those drawn in double figures filling all but one of the first nine places. That run is simple to excuse, and a return to Haydock can see him quickly back on top. He's gone up in the weights for that latest win, but is still lower in the ratings than he was at the start of the year, and looks as good as ever. He's languishing towards the bottom of the betting ladder, and that's simply wrong, so back him win and place for a juicy return.
Another horse with a solid record at Haydock is Cheveton, who contests the six-furlong handicap at 16:05. The veteran hasn't been in much form this season, but he's been trained to peak in the autumn, and showed a lot more in the Bronze Cup at Ayr last time, when not beaten far in eighth despite being drawn on the unfavoured side. He's got a reputation as best on heavy ground, but it's much more accurate to call him a late-season specialist, with the state of the going more of an issue for others. He's often slowly away, but that wasn't the case at Ayr, and he looks capable of better now that he's found his form.
The selection may not be quite the force of old, but a BHA mark of 80 underplays his current ability, and he is poised to strike when getting a suitable set-up. There isn't much obvious pace in the contest, and a false pace is an unknown for a few of these, particularly Dungannon, who was a winner for this column at Ascot last time, but had the perfect pace scenario there, and isn't sure to get things run to suit today.
The only solid pace angle in the contest is Karl Burke's Dancheur, who needs to dominate, and did just that when winning at Hamilton last weekend. She'd normally be opposable under a penalty in a more competitive race, but there's just a chance that she can get loose here, and she will go very close if the others let her set the early fractions. That's probably a scenario which would be the selection's undoing, so it makes sense to include her as a saver, particularly with the possibility of a back-to-lay trade in prospect.
Recommendations:
Both at Haydock
Back Confessional win & place @ [24.0] & [5.2] in the 15:30 (NAP)
Back Cheveton @ [13.0] in the 16:05 (NB)
Confessional again showed his liking for C&D with an impressive win earlier in the month, when always travelling exuberantly towards the fore, and able to be called the likeliest winner long before the winning line. He was pitched into the Portland under a penalty next time, but simply had no chance from a draw on the far side, with those drawn in double figures filling all but one of the first nine places. That run is simple to excuse, and a return to Haydock can see him quickly back on top. He's gone up in the weights for that latest win, but is still lower in the ratings than he was at the start of the year, and looks as good as ever. He's languishing towards the bottom of the betting ladder, and that's simply wrong, so back him win and place for a juicy return.
Another horse with a solid record at Haydock is Cheveton, who contests the six-furlong handicap at 16:05. The veteran hasn't been in much form this season, but he's been trained to peak in the autumn, and showed a lot more in the Bronze Cup at Ayr last time, when not beaten far in eighth despite being drawn on the unfavoured side. He's got a reputation as best on heavy ground, but it's much more accurate to call him a late-season specialist, with the state of the going more of an issue for others. He's often slowly away, but that wasn't the case at Ayr, and he looks capable of better now that he's found his form.
The selection may not be quite the force of old, but a BHA mark of 80 underplays his current ability, and he is poised to strike when getting a suitable set-up. There isn't much obvious pace in the contest, and a false pace is an unknown for a few of these, particularly Dungannon, who was a winner for this column at Ascot last time, but had the perfect pace scenario there, and isn't sure to get things run to suit today.
The only solid pace angle in the contest is Karl Burke's Dancheur, who needs to dominate, and did just that when winning at Hamilton last weekend. She'd normally be opposable under a penalty in a more competitive race, but there's just a chance that she can get loose here, and she will go very close if the others let her set the early fractions. That's probably a scenario which would be the selection's undoing, so it makes sense to include her as a saver, particularly with the possibility of a back-to-lay trade in prospect.
Recommendations:
Both at Haydock
Back Confessional win & place @ [24.0] & [5.2] in the 15:30 (NAP)
Back Cheveton @ [13.0] in the 16:05 (NB)
Thursday, 26 September 2013
Frankie - Do You Remember Me?
Readers of a certain vintage will remember the hook to Sister Sledge's eponymous 1985 hit. It may well be that racing's most famous Frankie has been wondering "do they remember me" at various times in the past year, with his oddly-feted comeback nearly derailed before it began, and not really gathering a full head of steam despite his gaining a welcome retainer to ride for Sheikh Joaan Al Thani. It's been thin pickings on the pattern-race front, too, with his only domestic success at the upper echelons coming in the less-that-grandly-titled "Sheila Madden's 60th Birthday Winter Hill Stakes".
Things are looking up for Mr Dettori, though, with a Group 1 win courtesy of the exciting Treve on the anniversary of his infamous écart de conduite, and corresponding dreams of Arc success, which would eradicate the painful memories of last September. He also looks to have a strong chance of gaining his first juvenile pattern success since 2011 when he rides Cable Bay for Charlie Hills in the Somerville Tattersall Stakes at 15:40 today.
Cable Bay may have shown himself short of the standard required to compete for highest honours, but he's a rock-solid performer at this level, and each of his last 3 runs has produced a performance which would beat anything achieved by any of his rivals here. That profile ought to make him a short-priced favourite, but the natural desire of the racing aficionado to rank potential over proven performance means that the likes of Championship and Silent Bullet are snapping at his heels. They are the "sexy" horses, but they still have to show that they have the same substance as the selection.
Championship is interesting, having been earmarked as Richard Hannon's main hope for the Coventry after an impressive debut, but he was well held at Royal Ascot and has plenty to prove now. Hannon has won this race in three of the last four years, but all of those winners were hardened campaigners coming off recent runs, and a Hannon juvenile reappearing after a layoff is a negative for me. Silent Bullet is unexposed, having beaten Safety Check at Haydock on just his second start. That looked a good performance, but the runner-up has shown himself to be no battler, and that win may flatter the Godolphin colt. All in all, it would be surprising if Cable Bay didn't go very close indeed, and he looks seriously overpriced at morning odds.
In the Jockey Club Rose Bowl Stakes at 16:15, the market is dominated by Caucus and Repeater, with the latter coming out best on Timeform figures after a good third to Times Up in the Doncaster Cup last time. A line through the winner makes him almost an identical horse to Caucus , who was a place behind Times Up in York's Lonsdale Cup on his latest outing. With David O'Meara's new recruit receiving weight from the penalised Gosden runner, he is the logical choice to win, but it's rarely that simple, and the factor which swings the verdict in favour of Caucus is his superior reliability, something which bare ratings cannot express.
Caucus' only poor run this year was when held up in a messy Goodwood Cup, but otherwise has been a model of consistency since stepped up to staying trips. On the other hand, Repeater has a pair of standout efforts on his card, and both of those have come in the Doncaster Cup. The fact that he ran the race of his life in the contest last year for Sir Mark Prescott, only to finish down the field in a Yarmouth handicap on his next outing, militates against his chances of backing up that latest effort.
Recommendations:
Both at Newmarket
Back Cable Bay @ [4.0] in the 15:40 (NAP)
Back Caucus @ [3.75] in the 16:15 (NB)
Sunday, 22 September 2013
Pole Apart For Prescott
Sir Mark Prescott and Lady Fairhaven have enjoyed some good days in the trainer/owner relationship over the years, none sweeter than when Quinlan Terry landed the 1988 Cambridgeshire (a day I remember well as I'd included him and Kim Brassey's Amigo Menor in a 10p yankee, and was feeling decidedly flush, not to say smug). It's not all glamour, though, and Prescott has always been an advocate of the old saying "keep yourself in the best company, and your horses in the worst", which is an ethos which has served the veteran Newmarket handler well over the years.
Indeed, the first winner that Lady Fairhaven had after the heady Quinlan Terry days came 20 years ago last month, when Sloe Brandy landed a nine-furlong selling handicap at Hamilton off a handicap mark of just 38! A fine piece of placing, for sure. The pair pay another trip to the Scottish venue, or at least one of their horses does, when North Pole bids to enhance his trainer's remarkable strike rate north of the border in the 16:20. Since the turn of the century, the master of Heath House has sent fifty 3-y-o runners to Hamilton, with 44% of them winning, and only seven in that number out of the frame.
North Pole's credentials are strong, particularly as an improving 3-y-o against more exposed handicappers. The son of Compton Place got off the mark in a mile handicap at Brighton in August, and was unlucky to bump into a progressive sort in the shape of Pilates at Bath last time. The winner franked that form by turning her next outing into a procession, and North Pole looks fairly treated on the same mark, particularly with the prospect of further improvement on the cards. On the other hand, market rival Size appeared better than the bare result over C&D last time, but that form has been badly let down by those who finished around him since, and he looks poor value as a result.
At Plumpton, it may prove wise to forgive Midnight Lira a poor chasing debut when she lines up for her handicap debut in that sphere at 17:00. First of all, new rules regarding qualifying requirements for novice handicap chases means that it's always wise to turn a blind eye to a chasing debutant who already has a hurdles mark, and that is effectively what the handicapper does too, with many simply allowed to fiddle around in rear in order to meet the criteria for achieving that needed mark. In the case of Midnight Lira, she's bred to excel over fences, with her dam a prolific winner at staying trips, and having already produced the useful chaser Bally Legend by the same sire. Bally Legend was a winning hurdler, but improved over fences last season, and there's every chance his little sister will follow suit.
Caroline Keevil, who trains, is not one to run her chasers when not ready, and she's only had one runner in this sphere since April. That runner was Cinevator, who duly dotted up at Fontwell a few weeks ago. With the yard ticking along nicely, Midnight Lira is taken to score at attractive odds.
Recommendations:
Back North Pole @ [4.8] in the 16:20 Hamilton (NAP)
Back Midnight Lira @ [13.0] in the 17:00 Plumpton (NB)
Indeed, the first winner that Lady Fairhaven had after the heady Quinlan Terry days came 20 years ago last month, when Sloe Brandy landed a nine-furlong selling handicap at Hamilton off a handicap mark of just 38! A fine piece of placing, for sure. The pair pay another trip to the Scottish venue, or at least one of their horses does, when North Pole bids to enhance his trainer's remarkable strike rate north of the border in the 16:20. Since the turn of the century, the master of Heath House has sent fifty 3-y-o runners to Hamilton, with 44% of them winning, and only seven in that number out of the frame.
North Pole's credentials are strong, particularly as an improving 3-y-o against more exposed handicappers. The son of Compton Place got off the mark in a mile handicap at Brighton in August, and was unlucky to bump into a progressive sort in the shape of Pilates at Bath last time. The winner franked that form by turning her next outing into a procession, and North Pole looks fairly treated on the same mark, particularly with the prospect of further improvement on the cards. On the other hand, market rival Size appeared better than the bare result over C&D last time, but that form has been badly let down by those who finished around him since, and he looks poor value as a result.
At Plumpton, it may prove wise to forgive Midnight Lira a poor chasing debut when she lines up for her handicap debut in that sphere at 17:00. First of all, new rules regarding qualifying requirements for novice handicap chases means that it's always wise to turn a blind eye to a chasing debutant who already has a hurdles mark, and that is effectively what the handicapper does too, with many simply allowed to fiddle around in rear in order to meet the criteria for achieving that needed mark. In the case of Midnight Lira, she's bred to excel over fences, with her dam a prolific winner at staying trips, and having already produced the useful chaser Bally Legend by the same sire. Bally Legend was a winning hurdler, but improved over fences last season, and there's every chance his little sister will follow suit.
Caroline Keevil, who trains, is not one to run her chasers when not ready, and she's only had one runner in this sphere since April. That runner was Cinevator, who duly dotted up at Fontwell a few weeks ago. With the yard ticking along nicely, Midnight Lira is taken to score at attractive odds.
Recommendations:
Back North Pole @ [4.8] in the 16:20 Hamilton (NAP)
Back Midnight Lira @ [13.0] in the 17:00 Plumpton (NB)
Saturday, 21 September 2013
Remember You? You Bet!
If subliminal thinking is the formula for picking winners, then the Ayr Gold Cup should be straightforward today, as I've been finding myself singing the annoyingly catchy "Yes Sir, I Can Boogie" against my better judgement for the last 48 hours. I also had a surprisingly vivid dream once in which a bay horse in the familiar maroon and grey silks of the late Adair Catherwood bounded up the Aintree run-in in splendid (as opposed to Spendid - one for the anoraks there) isolation, but as I'm still holding a losing docket with Keen Leader written on it, it's safe to declare that lucid dreams aren't the key to punting success, either. Baccarat for a game of soldiers, I say.
On a more prosaic note, the formbook has been rather more useful in recent times, and while the cavalry charge at 15:50 appeals to many, it's the earlier race which look eminently more solvable. The opener is a 1m nursery in which recent Doncaster Braidley is called to action again, only this time the handicapper has attempted to take revenge, and many will baulk at the 10 lb rise which James Bethell's charge has been subject to. Makes no mistake, however, he was a class apart in what looked a competitive affair at Town Moor, and with his stamina for a mile already proven prior to that rout, he can find enough improvement to follow up. The switch from Ted Durcan to Graham Lee is hardly a negative, either, and while I respect the unexposed Light Weight, Braidley looks the clear pick, and should be nearer 11/4 that current odds of 9/2.
Sharestan is the strict form pick in the Doonside Cup, and will enjoy conditions at Ayr, but he had a decidedly anticlimactic campaign at Meydan earlier this year, and needs to bounce back to win this listed contest. Media Hype and Hajras are another pair returning from absence here, which complicates matters further. First Mohican has the best recent form, but he may need further than ten furlongs now, and it may pay to take a chance on Willie The Whipper despite a disappointing showing in the Great Voltigeur. A good sixth in the Prix du Jockey Club in June, having finished second in the Criterium de Saint Cloud last autumn, there's no denying that he has the class for this contest.
While the abiding memory of the Ebor Meeting is the rain that fell from Thursday evening onwards, it should be remembered that the meeting started on going close to firm, and several horses seemed to struggle with the lively surface. That comment applies to Willie The Whipper as much as anything, and the impression he gave was that he was unable to let himself down fully. Back on easy ground today, he can prove that form all wrong.
But the best is kept to last, and the nap vote on Saturday goes to David Wachman's Remember You in the Firth of Clyde Stakes at 15:15. Neither the Timeform figures nor official ratings have her at the top of the pile, but I'd be very surprised if her latest effort, when getting within 2 lengths of the much-vaunted Great White Eagle, doesn't look a few pounds better in retrospect than it does now. I've been hugely impressed by Aidan O'Brien's record-breaking Breeze-Up purchase, and I feel there is a strong possibility that he's much better than the bare form of his Round Tower win, and by inference, Remember You may also be underrated. Back against her own sex, she can enhance her own credentials, and those of her Curragh conqueror.
Recommendations:
All at Ayr
Back Braidley @ [5.4] in the 13:30 (NB)
Back Willie The Whipper @ [7.0] in the 14:05
Back Remember You @ [6.2] in the 15:15 (NAP)
On a more prosaic note, the formbook has been rather more useful in recent times, and while the cavalry charge at 15:50 appeals to many, it's the earlier race which look eminently more solvable. The opener is a 1m nursery in which recent Doncaster Braidley is called to action again, only this time the handicapper has attempted to take revenge, and many will baulk at the 10 lb rise which James Bethell's charge has been subject to. Makes no mistake, however, he was a class apart in what looked a competitive affair at Town Moor, and with his stamina for a mile already proven prior to that rout, he can find enough improvement to follow up. The switch from Ted Durcan to Graham Lee is hardly a negative, either, and while I respect the unexposed Light Weight, Braidley looks the clear pick, and should be nearer 11/4 that current odds of 9/2.
Sharestan is the strict form pick in the Doonside Cup, and will enjoy conditions at Ayr, but he had a decidedly anticlimactic campaign at Meydan earlier this year, and needs to bounce back to win this listed contest. Media Hype and Hajras are another pair returning from absence here, which complicates matters further. First Mohican has the best recent form, but he may need further than ten furlongs now, and it may pay to take a chance on Willie The Whipper despite a disappointing showing in the Great Voltigeur. A good sixth in the Prix du Jockey Club in June, having finished second in the Criterium de Saint Cloud last autumn, there's no denying that he has the class for this contest.
While the abiding memory of the Ebor Meeting is the rain that fell from Thursday evening onwards, it should be remembered that the meeting started on going close to firm, and several horses seemed to struggle with the lively surface. That comment applies to Willie The Whipper as much as anything, and the impression he gave was that he was unable to let himself down fully. Back on easy ground today, he can prove that form all wrong.
But the best is kept to last, and the nap vote on Saturday goes to David Wachman's Remember You in the Firth of Clyde Stakes at 15:15. Neither the Timeform figures nor official ratings have her at the top of the pile, but I'd be very surprised if her latest effort, when getting within 2 lengths of the much-vaunted Great White Eagle, doesn't look a few pounds better in retrospect than it does now. I've been hugely impressed by Aidan O'Brien's record-breaking Breeze-Up purchase, and I feel there is a strong possibility that he's much better than the bare form of his Round Tower win, and by inference, Remember You may also be underrated. Back against her own sex, she can enhance her own credentials, and those of her Curragh conqueror.
Recommendations:
All at Ayr
Back Braidley @ [5.4] in the 13:30 (NB)
Back Willie The Whipper @ [7.0] in the 14:05
Back Remember You @ [6.2] in the 15:15 (NAP)
Friday, 20 September 2013
Aetna Set To Erupt At Ayr
"The bigger the field, the bigger the certainty" was one of those confusing sayings I picked up from a childhood misspent in betting shops (well, one betting shop, as Cushendall isn't exactly a bustling metropolis), and while I've never seen the adage prove its worth, I'm hoping that it holds true at Ayr today, where Aetna looks a class apart in terms of form and scope in the 5f handicap at 14:20.
Mick Easterby has already tasted success with one he's laid out for the Western Meeting, with Boris Grigoriev landing a quiet touch yesterday, and Aetna looks to have outstanding claims as long as her low draw doesn't inconvenience her too much. She bolted up at Doncaster in the spring, before disappointing on her only try at a mile on faster ground at Nottinham in April, where the ground and/or trip seemed against her. Not disgraced back at seven furlongs at York, it was only when dropped to sprinting that she really showed what she could do.
A win over 5f at Newcastle in June saw her right back on track, but she did even better at Newmarket last time, when chasing home Dutch Masterpiece. That form looked very good at the time, especially with further progress on the cards, but the winner's subsequent success in the Flying Five at the Curragh paints in in an even better light. If anyone doubts the value of that formline (surely not), then a next-time-out Group 3 victory for third-placed Russian Soul at the same venue puts the proverbial icing on the cake.
Aetna
has been kept aside for a late season campaign since, with the prevalence of soft ground suiting such a policy, and it needs to be remembered that the shrewd Easterby considered supplementing her for the 1000 Guineas after that debut win. I expect a handicap mark of 83 will soon look very lenient, and the daughter of Indesatchel can continue her progress against exposed rivals today.
Another horse looking to make a winning comeback after a summer break is Albert Bridge in the staying handicap at 15:25. Ralph Beckett's charge isn't the most consistent, but is a more effective operator on soft ground, and was a winner over thirteen furlongs at this meeting last year. He proved his stamina when runner-up in the mud at Leopardstown in November, and is better than he's been able to show in 2 starts in the spring. With his astute handler sure to have him cherry ripe, he can get back on the progressive trail, with today's test of stamina expected to play to his strengths. He's unexposed as a stayer, and as such is worth siding with.
Recommendations:
Both at Ayr
Back Aetna @ [5.9] in the 14:20 (NAP)
Back Albert Bridge @ [6.4] in the 15:25 (NB)
Mick Easterby has already tasted success with one he's laid out for the Western Meeting, with Boris Grigoriev landing a quiet touch yesterday, and Aetna looks to have outstanding claims as long as her low draw doesn't inconvenience her too much. She bolted up at Doncaster in the spring, before disappointing on her only try at a mile on faster ground at Nottinham in April, where the ground and/or trip seemed against her. Not disgraced back at seven furlongs at York, it was only when dropped to sprinting that she really showed what she could do.
A win over 5f at Newcastle in June saw her right back on track, but she did even better at Newmarket last time, when chasing home Dutch Masterpiece. That form looked very good at the time, especially with further progress on the cards, but the winner's subsequent success in the Flying Five at the Curragh paints in in an even better light. If anyone doubts the value of that formline (surely not), then a next-time-out Group 3 victory for third-placed Russian Soul at the same venue puts the proverbial icing on the cake.
Aetna
has been kept aside for a late season campaign since, with the prevalence of soft ground suiting such a policy, and it needs to be remembered that the shrewd Easterby considered supplementing her for the 1000 Guineas after that debut win. I expect a handicap mark of 83 will soon look very lenient, and the daughter of Indesatchel can continue her progress against exposed rivals today.
Another horse looking to make a winning comeback after a summer break is Albert Bridge in the staying handicap at 15:25. Ralph Beckett's charge isn't the most consistent, but is a more effective operator on soft ground, and was a winner over thirteen furlongs at this meeting last year. He proved his stamina when runner-up in the mud at Leopardstown in November, and is better than he's been able to show in 2 starts in the spring. With his astute handler sure to have him cherry ripe, he can get back on the progressive trail, with today's test of stamina expected to play to his strengths. He's unexposed as a stayer, and as such is worth siding with.
Recommendations:
Both at Ayr
Back Aetna @ [5.9] in the 14:20 (NAP)
Back Albert Bridge @ [6.4] in the 15:25 (NB)
Tuesday, 17 September 2013
Carr Can Klynch Another Thirsk Win
Pick of the Flat cards on Tuesday is a competitive programme at Thirsk, where winners may not be easy to come by, but prices are likely to be juicy as a result.
I'm something of a devotee of the Huby yard of Ruth Carr, and the granddaughter of David Chapman has carried on the family tradition in fine style. She has a pair of interesting candidates in the 7f handicap at 15:40, with Al Muheer and Klynch both fully effective under prevailing conditions, and capable of outrunning morning odds.
Al Muheer is well drawn, and has dropped to a mark 2 lb lower than when beaten in a three-way photo at York in July, but it's somewhat surprising that he races without his usual blinkers (all six handicap wins have come with the headgear on), and it's the yard's apparent second string Klynch who makes most appeal at the odds. A winner of back-to-back handicaps in May, the latter at this track, he's struggled since, but the handicapper has taken a chance in dropping him to a 1 lb lower mark that for the first of those wins. He proved he was effective at this trip with a win at Epsom last summer, and looks thrown in if refinding that sort of form.
Recent efforts from Klynch have been uninspiring, but he went off much too hard after a short break last time, and can be expected to do better now, so long as Jimmy Sullivan doesn't overdo the forcing tactics again, which is admittedly a concern with fellow front runner Snow Bay drawn inside him. Such concerns are allayed by a morning price which is hovering around 25/1, and with plenty of meat expected in the Betfair place odds, he's taken to reward each-way support.
Another at Thirsk who looks overpriced on the back of an admittedly poor run is Mister Marcasite in the 15:10. Mel Brittain's charge was a winner at Nottingham on his penultimate outing, and had been off for 12 weeks prior to a rare poor run over C&D last time, weakening as if fitness was an issue. If that run is forgiven, this easy-ground specialist is much too big in the betting at 16/1 and upwards. Drawn well for one who races prominently, he may not have quite the same form chance as topweight Nurpur, but his odds more than compensate for that, and he's worth chancing to return to form under suitable conditions.
Recommendations:
Both at Thirsk
Back Klynch @ [27.0] & [7.0] win and place in the 15:40 (NAP)
Back Mister Marcasite @ [17.0] in the 15:10 (NB)
I'm something of a devotee of the Huby yard of Ruth Carr, and the granddaughter of David Chapman has carried on the family tradition in fine style. She has a pair of interesting candidates in the 7f handicap at 15:40, with Al Muheer and Klynch both fully effective under prevailing conditions, and capable of outrunning morning odds.
Al Muheer is well drawn, and has dropped to a mark 2 lb lower than when beaten in a three-way photo at York in July, but it's somewhat surprising that he races without his usual blinkers (all six handicap wins have come with the headgear on), and it's the yard's apparent second string Klynch who makes most appeal at the odds. A winner of back-to-back handicaps in May, the latter at this track, he's struggled since, but the handicapper has taken a chance in dropping him to a 1 lb lower mark that for the first of those wins. He proved he was effective at this trip with a win at Epsom last summer, and looks thrown in if refinding that sort of form.
Recent efforts from Klynch have been uninspiring, but he went off much too hard after a short break last time, and can be expected to do better now, so long as Jimmy Sullivan doesn't overdo the forcing tactics again, which is admittedly a concern with fellow front runner Snow Bay drawn inside him. Such concerns are allayed by a morning price which is hovering around 25/1, and with plenty of meat expected in the Betfair place odds, he's taken to reward each-way support.
Another at Thirsk who looks overpriced on the back of an admittedly poor run is Mister Marcasite in the 15:10. Mel Brittain's charge was a winner at Nottingham on his penultimate outing, and had been off for 12 weeks prior to a rare poor run over C&D last time, weakening as if fitness was an issue. If that run is forgiven, this easy-ground specialist is much too big in the betting at 16/1 and upwards. Drawn well for one who races prominently, he may not have quite the same form chance as topweight Nurpur, but his odds more than compensate for that, and he's worth chancing to return to form under suitable conditions.
Recommendations:
Both at Thirsk
Back Klynch @ [27.0] & [7.0] win and place in the 15:40 (NAP)
Back Mister Marcasite @ [17.0] in the 15:10 (NB)
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