Flashman for Hexham Sextet

Mondays were never meant to be easy, particularly for the nine-to-fivers, but Flat racing has a habit of throwing up fiendishly difficult cards at the beginning of each week, as typified by the fare put on at Windsor, where the city boys guzzling champagne probably lose less money that the stay-at-home punters. For my sins, I've had the job of compiling the card at Windsor this evening, but that hasn't caused any winners to jump off the page.

It's to lowly Hexham I'll go for my best bet, where it's worth taking a chance on the well-being of Harry Flashman in the hunter chase at 17:00. The 12-y-o has an excellent record at the track, winning five times from 9 completed starts for Donald Whillans, the latest on a lively surface in May. A repeat of that handicap win will definitely be enough to dispose of the vast majority of today's rivals, although he did finish lame there on his final start for the yard.

Now in the care of Greg Aitken, the chestnut gelding made what appears an inauspicious debut in the pointing field recently, pulling up in a race won by Buckstruther at Morpeth, but there were valid excuses, given that was his comeback on unsuitable terrain, and he shaped as if retaining ability. The outing will have done him the power of good, and had this race been run a year ago, he'd not be much bigger than Evens. It seems to me that layers are taking a huge chance with him at 8/1 this morning, and while there is an element of risk in backing him, the upside of his current price is compelling.

Palos Conti is a worthy favourite, having bolted up on his return from a lengthy absence at Sedgefield last time, and I'm in no hurry to lay Alison Christmas' gelding after he landed a plunge there, but he would be receiving nearly a stone from the selection if this were a handicap, and he's as short as his form entitles him to be. The only other runner who looks worth considering to me is the ex-Chris Grant runner Ngong Hills, who has enjoyed a new lease of life in points of late. Perhaps the best way of insuring against a flop from Harry Flashman is to have that pair in a modest reverse forecast.

In the preceding contest at 16:30, it's very hard to oppose Lady of Verona in a pretty dire mares maiden hurdle. Lucinda Russell's  charge is no superstar, but the only reason she's failed to win so far is simply that she's lacked a change of gear against superior rivals. This is by far her best chance to get her head in front to date, and the opposition look very poor on the whole. The possible exceptions are Valsesia and Hidden Horizons, but the former has been off for a long time since showing her only solid piece of form (reads well now, but she may have been flattered by the run of things), while Hidden Horizons has shown nothing on her last 2 starts, albeit at the minimum trip. She'll do much better dropped to this level and up to a stiff 3m, but looks nowhere near as solid as Lady of Verona, who really shouldn't be troubled to win.  

Recommendations:

Both at Hexham

Back Harry Flashman @ [8.4] in the 17:00 (NAP)

Back Lady of Verona @ [2.50] in the 16:30 (NB)

Cannon Set To Stun

At a time when some of the most iconic jump jockeys of all time are heading into the twilight years of their professional careers (surely even Tony McCoy can't keep coming back from falls such as the one which hospitalised him at Cheltenham on Thursday, while Timmy Murphy was in the wars at Ayr yesterday), there will inevitably be a collective craning of the necks among racing congnscenti on the lookout for the next weighing-room colossus. Ask a clutch of professionals who they see as a future champion jockey, and you'll get a few different answers, but one name which will crop up frequently is that of Tom Cannon.

It's been a season to savour for Cannon despite doing most of his work on the gaff tracks like Fontwell, where he will ride a host of dubious characters for the likes of Chris Gordon and Nick Gifford, but he's shown he can do it on the bigger stage, too, his win aboard On Trend at Sandown in February a performance of real maturity, while he achieved a long-held ambition to ride a Cheltenham winner with a finely-judged effort on Starluck during the week. We'll surely be hearing much more of Mr Cannon in the years to come, and he can advertise that fact with a good day at Wincanton today.

The aforementioned Chris Gordon was keen to snap up the young jockey's services at an early stage, and he deserves great credit for his talent-spotting abilities, both with riders and horses. Many of Gordon's jumpers have come to him with a reputation of being moderate and/or ungenuine, and it's to the trainer's credit that he's achieved the results that he has with few marquee performers. The latest success story has been the Dansili gelding Superciliary, who was unable to get his head in front on the Flat for Ralph Beckett, but belatedly shed his maiden status when winning a handicap hurdle for his new yard at Plumpton last time. He should follow up in the 14:10 at Wincanton.

Superciliary's story is a simple enough one; he's found it hard to handle testing ground over hurdles, but was given a real chance by the handicapper before showing himself much better suited by good-to-soft ground at Plumpton, and that form looks solid. The runner-up may have disappointed on Friday, but third-placed Goochypoochyprader arrived there after a series of good runs, and has since gone on to regain the winning thread at Fontwell off the same mark. Bach on Tow was further back in sixth, but is another to have landed a handicap subsequently, giving the form a rock-solid appearance. The yard has exploded back to form in recent weeks having had a very quiet spell, with 4 of the handler's last 11 runners in handicap hurdles winning, and with the ground drying out all the time at Wincanton, everything looks in place for another big effort. A 7 lb rise for his win looks very lenient in retrospect, and Superciliary should be much shorter than his current odds of 3/1.

Gordon's standard bearer in recent seasons has been King Edmund (15:10 Wincanton), owned by long-time patron and some-time corinthian amateur rider Anthony Ward-Thomas, about whom his trainer replied when asked of his chances aboard Launde in the 2010 Aintree Fox Hunters': "He's an absolutely shocking rider, but a great friend....we just hope he's not in a body bag at the end of it."

Luckily, Ward-Thomas isn't on board King Edmund today, and the gelding has a cracking chance based on his latest run over C&D when splitting Rody and Jump City. The inveterate front-runner faces competition for the lead here, but that's not a scenario which fazes him, and he's got a bit more class than today's rivals. More importantly, he's a much better "lepper" than the majority of them, and can make the best of his way home as the likes of Laterly, Nobunaga and Swift Lord blunder their chances away at a track which takes few prisoners in the jumping department. Elenika is likely to throw down the sternest challenge, and appeals as the type to trade short in running, but he regularly finishes weakly after travelling well, and did so again when unplaced at Ascot recently, having hit a low of 1.61 in the run.

Handicap snip of the day is arguably Lower Hope Dandy in the following contest, but punters should be aware than Venetia Williams' unexposed son of Karinga Bay suffered from heat stroke after winning easily at Cheltenham in mid-week, needing treatment in the unsaddling enclosure before recovering. He really is a cracking prospect for the future, and his current mark underplays his ability by some way, but such a quick turnaround after an arduous experience is a definite concern, and he's not one to plunge on at skinny odds today. He's worth laying at current odds, with the option of trading back should concerns about his well-being cause him to drift pre-race.

Recommendations:

All at Wincanton

Back Superciliary @ [4.0] in the 14:10 (NAP)

Back King Edmund @ [4.1] in the 15:10 (NB)

Lay Lower Hope Dandy @ [2.68] in the 15:40

Yours, Sincerely

One of the highlights of a couple of days at Cheltenham this week was the victory of Peter Bowen's Big Time Billy in the 21f mares' handicap hurdle, and her victory provides a pointer to the chances of a couple of runners at Fontwell today.

The horse Big Time Billy beat last time was Occasionally Yours, and Alan Blackmore's runner was a long way clear of the third in that 23f Fakenham handicap. He proved that form to be strong when winning over a shorter trip at Fontwell last time by no less than 20 lengths, and while he takes another drop in trip today (14:50 Fontwell), a mandatory penalty isn't enough to stop him if in the same form. He's clearly back to himself having rather lost his way last season, but is still much lower in the weights than when winning at Worcester in the summer of 2011, and his penalty sees him well-in to the tune of 7 lb, a figure which could well be higher if the assessor was to take his Fakenham conqueror's latest run into consideration. His claims are there for all to see, so it's somewhat surprising to see him trade as big as 7/2 on Betfair this morning.

Big Time Billy wasn't the only winner at Cheltenham during the week who looked well treated on bumper form, with Lower Hope Dandy belatedly backing up the impression he'd made in such races to prove his opening mark was very lenient, and the hurdles assessor's refusal to use bumper form as a benchmark for his ratings means that such scenarios crop up on a regular basis. Bright Light (16:00 Fontwell) isn't the most blinding example of this trend, but she did run well when second in a course bumper last season, and is surely better than the poor form she's shown over hurdles to date.

Richard Phillips' mare has been soundly beaten to date over timber, albeit in races she wouldn't be expected to win, and is bred to do much better somewhere down the line, with the likes of Hurricane Lamp and Martins Lamp having done well for their owner-breeder Sue Welch. Mrs Welch would presumably be delighted to utilise Bright Light as a broodmare given the family's exploits, but would prefer to get a win under her belt. If the daughter of Exit To Knowhere can't win off a mark of 69, then she'll struggle to get her head in front at all, so this looks the best opportunity she'll ever get. The yard isn't prolific these days, but a winner at the weekend is a positive sign, and Bright Light is worth an interest in a poor race.

Recommendations:

Both at Fontwell

Back Occasionally Yours @ [4.3] in the 14:50 (NAP)

Back Bright Light @ [5.6] in the 16:00 (NB)

Quipe The Faith

I had a moan about the weather the other day when unexpectedly heavy rain saw my intended nap taken out at Chepstow, causing a rethink on the card. Hopefully the work done there won't be wasted, as the horse in question, Quipe Me Posted turns out on what is described as good ground at Kempton (15:25) today.

Suzy Smith's charge has a rather chequered history, but looked a good prospect when winning on his second start for the yard at Newbury in March 2011, and found just a rampant Rileyev too strong next time. For whatever reason, he failed to fire at all last season, but the handicapper has handed him a lifeline with a hefty drop in the weights for a poor effort on his final start. That run came, somewhat ironically, in this corresponding event last spring.

An absence of a year can be viewed as a concern, but for a horse who clearly had a physical issue when last seen, it is likely to prove a blessing in disguise, and hopefully the time off has allowed his underrated handler to get him back to health. The fact he was due to race the other day, added to the retention of headgear indicate that this is no warm-up outing, and Quipe Me Posted looks primed to run for his life. He's now 9 lb below his winning mark and has shown in the past that he can go well fresh. This has the look of a do-or-die venture, but he's too well treated to ignore, and merits the nap vote at what look generous odds.

At Southwell, I've had a good look at the 16:25, which looks a really competitive race for the track. There are several with solid course form who look set to make the market, but I'll risk ridicule by putting up a pair unproven on fibresand as selections. The main hope is Al Khan, who was only seventh of 9 on his course debut last time, and on the face of it has plenty to prove.

A closer look at that effort tells a different story, however. Dropped to an inadequate 5f there, Vi Jordan's charge was slowly away, which compounded the stiffness of his task. His race was effectively over after a furlong, but he closed up markedly on the front runners in the latter stages to indicate that he handled the surface perfectly well. A return to 7f will suit him ideally, and he still looks on a workable mark. The likes of Half A Billion, Caldercruix and Hellbender are respected on course form, but none of that trio can be described as well handicapped, and the progressive Al Khan rates a value bet.

It may also pay to have a saver on Lieutenant Dan at current odds despite his lack of experience at the track. Mick Appleby's runners all seem to improve for a switch to this surface, and while the son of Danroad has a bit to find on form, there must be the possibility that he can do so now belatedly trying fibresand, and those laying him at 20.0 and above are taking a huge risk.

Recommendations:

Back Quipe Me Posted @ [8.8] in the 15:25 Kempton (NAP)

Back Al Khan & Lieutenant Dan @ [6.6] and [20.0] in the 16:25 Southwell

Reason To Back Ratty At Rasen

Dianne Sayer can be relied upon to get the most out of the horses in her care, and has a knack of keeping horses with quirky temperaments sweet, as evidenced by a couple of recent wins for the less-than-honest Endeavour, who holds outstanding claims in the opening handicap at Market Rasen today. Whether he represents value at current odds is something of a moot point, but Sayer has claims of completing a double on the card with Bunratty in the 15:35.

Bunratty recently made the move from Bob Johnson's yard, and that is intriguing, given he started his career with Sayer's mother, Evelyn Slack. Horseracing has very much been a family affair for Sayer, as she also rode the popular grey What's What to victory for her uncle Bryan Bousfield during her time as an amateur rider.

A big, strong sort, it's taken Bunratty quite a while to grow into his frame, and his modest early form is by no means the limit of his ability, especially as he's often given the impression that 2m over hurdles isn't enough of a test. That looked the case at Sedgefield last time, where he travelled well in front, but failed to match the speed shown by the aforementioned Endeavour before plugging on to finish a creditable third. Likely to be sharper for that first start for the yard, he looks certain to benefit from a step up to 21f today, and is taken to show himself ahead of his mark. Brian Harding is on board, but it's interesting that Lucy Alexander was booked for the yard's Jack Albert in the race, and it would be no great surprise to see a jockey change now that he's a non runner. The selection is tried in a hood today, and while the increasingly popular accountrement is no magic wand, it never seems to have a negative effect, unlike more severe forms of headgear.

Beckhani is an obvious danger, but it's not easy to catch Jonjo O'Neill's runners right, and those looking for a saver may do better with Phil Kirby's Fairynuff, who is better than recent efforts imply, and has fallen to a workable mark.

The 16:30 at Ffos Las has cut up, but still looks a race with a potential betting angle, with 2 horses standing out. Super Villan is the sole pace in the race, and can dictate terms under Nico de Boinville, while If In Doubt is well handicapped based on his defeat of subsequent Sandown winner Viva Steve at Towcester in January. Philip Hobbs' gelding disappointed on his handicap debut at Wincanton, but was clearly unsuited by the stop-start nature of that race over 2m, and was looked after when it was clear his chance had gone. He will be much better suited by the step up to 2¾m here, and can repay the patience of punters. He's short enough in the betting, but as well as a win bit, I'd recommend backing him to beat Super Villan in a straight forecast.

Recommendations:

Back Bunratty @ [8.4] in the 15:35 Market Rasen (NAP)

Back If In Doubt @ [2.72] in the 16:30 Ffos Las (NB)

Back 3 to beat 7 (F/C) in the 16:30 Ffos Las

Riding Into The Sunset

Once again, the rain has come to throw a spanner in the works - today's meeting at Chepstow was due to be run on a sound surface, and many of the entries were horses who have been waiting for what we can only ironically refer to as "spring ground". A pair who have already been taken out would have featured among my bets of the day, but hopefully for Quipe Me Posted and Nothingbutthetruth, there will be another sunny day on which to go to war.

As it stands, several of the races at the Monmouthshire venue are less competitive than they had first appeared, notably the concluding 3m handicap hurdle, where several of the more interesting acceptors look to need a sound surface.

The race will probably cut up further, but a pair who make plenty of appeal at current odds are The Good Guy and Barton Gift. The former is a front runner who has faced inadequate tests since a creditable third over this trip at Sandown in November, but he was noted staying on late in a handicap chase at Leicester last time, and will appreciate the return to 3m and a dozen flights of hurdles. He could face competition for the lead from Rainbow Haze, but the latter is definitely one for faster ground, and would be a welcome non-runner from my point of view.

Barton Gift's claims are more obvious, having shown improved form in the mud on his last 2 starts, winning at Ffos  Las and running well to be placed at Exeter last time. He will be better suited than any by further rainfall, and looks poised for another big run under the excellent Nico de Boinville.

Nico will hopefully be trying for a double at that stage, as he rides my main fancy in the preceding handicap chase. Massini's Sunset has rightly been called a few names in the past, and he is a moody character who gives his running sparingly. He showed that he was no back number when second to the much-improved Jupiter Rex at Plumpton before one of his off days here last time, though, and it's just over a year ago that he turned a similar C&D contest into a procession at equally unflattering odds.

The veteran's record at Chepstow reads pretty well, and while there will always be a large element of risk with him, he simply shouldn't be a 33/1 shot given his quicksilver temperament.  I'd also recommend having at least a saver on Loughalder, who is also a quirky sort, but has won both his starts over C&D, and looked set to score again at Warwick until his stamina gave out over the 29f trip last time.

Recommendations:

all at Chepstow

Back Massini Sunset & Loughalder @ [19.0] & [7.4] in the 17:30

Back Barton Gift & The Good Guy @ [5.2] & [17.5] in the 18:00

Cowboys & Indians

**Internet problems stopped me posting this morning, but for the sake of completeness, here are today's recommended bets, which number 2 losers and a non-runner. My thanks to Keith Melrose for some judicious editing on the betting.betfair site**

At Lingfield, the opening race is contested by a group who struggle to win at any level, with only Indian Violet and Titan Diamond boasting winning form at this level in the last 18 months. Titan Diamond arrives in decent form, and will be popular, but at the odds I prefer 4-time course winner Indian Violet, who landed a class 6 C&D event 3 starts back, and has been racing in better company since. His latest effort was disappointing on paper, but came in a race which has thrown up a couple of subsequent winners, and he's well berthed to take up his usual prominent position.

Catterick's card is moderate but competitive, and one who looks overpriced is Thecornishcowboy in the 16:50, the feature race on the card. John Ryan's gelding was much improved over the winter, winning 3 times over 1½m at Lingfield. He travelled well despite not settling fully at Newcastle the other day before appearing to have his stamina stretched at that stiff track, but will find the sharp contours of Catterick much more to his liking, and really shouldn't be a 20/1 shot on form. It's possible that the best way to play his is again to take a trading approach, but he's worth considering as a straight win bet at current odds.

Eric The Grey (17:10 Nottingham), a half-brother to 1¼m/1½m winner Elizabeth Coffee, improved on his debut run when third at Musselburgh (7f) in September, and may have needed run at Wolverhampton last month. Debdebdeb is another who will improve for this trip and looks a valid favourite, but Eric The Grey hails from a stable in cracking form, and looks on a workable mark now handicapping for the first time.

Recommended Bets:

Back Indian Violet @ [11.5] in the 14:00 at Lingfield

Back Thecornishcowboy @ [21.0] in the 16:50 Catterick

Back Eric The Grey @ [7.2] in the 17:10 at Nottingham

Wily Selection Can Outfox Rivals

Pontefract stages a cracking card on the Flat today, and with the going no worse than good to soft, the galloping track should throw up true results. Race of the day appears to be the 1¼m handicap at 16:15, for all the Jamaican Flight handicap over the 2¼m trip will appeal to the traditionalists, myself included.

That 1¼m handicap looks a wide-open affair at first glance, and it's hard to rule many out, but David Barron's old warrior Sirvino looks well treated on the pick of last season's form, and has run respectably on all his previous runs here. A solid third on his return at Meydan shows that he can still go well fresh (has won first-time-up in the past), and he's much better off with Las Verglas Star for a defeat at the hands of that rival over C&D last autumn. Having started last season on a BHA mark of 100, he really ought to go well having been dropped to 89, despite plenty of evidence that his ability hadn't waned markedly in the meantime. Barron has started the new turf season in typically forward fashion, and his record with older handicappers at Pontefract is excellent.

Dangers abound, although Licence To Till is omitted from calculations having run poorly in this race last year, and the most intriguing of a quartet starting off for new yards is Spanish Duke. An unpredictable sort for John Dunlop, he's just the sort that Brian Ellison does well with, and ought to go well having twice won after a break of 60 days or more. It's worth backing both at current odds.

In the staying contest at 15:40, it's worth siding with James Eustace's Wily Fox. The son of Observatory isn't an obvious stayer on pedigree, but has proved suited by a test of stamina since tried in a hood (can be a bit free in his races), and plugged on well when second in the mud at Newbury (2m) last back-end.

Wily Fox has since shown improved form over hurdles, splitting subsequent winners when third at Taunton (19f) before winning over the same trip at Market Rasen. He didn't get the run of things when fancied at Newbury last time, but it's easy enough to forgive that run, and he returns to the Flat on a potentially lenient mark. He certainly looks overpriced at around 14/1, and appeals as a solid each-way bet despite there being only 3 places. The upside of that is a bigger price on the exchange place market, and I'd be disappointed if he isn't thereabouts at the business end.

Recommendations:

All at Pontefract

Back Wily Fox in the 15:40 @ [14.5] to win & [4.5] to place

Back Sirvino and Spanish Duke in the 16:15 @ [6.4] & [6.0] respectively

Old Favourite Dew A Win

It's hard to follow what was a memorable Grand National, and one in which the new broadcaster of the event rose impressively to a very difficult challenge, but today's Ascot meeting is not too shabby at all, and will hopefully provide us with a winner.

The first race which looks worth tackling is the 17f novices' handicap chase at 16:00. This is no shortage of pace in this contest, which will ensure a true-run race, and while my fancy Greywell Boy may seem at a potential disadvantage as one of the likely pacesetters, I'm actually quite confident that the run of the race will play to his strengths. Bred to be a staying chaser, he's shown more stamina than speed to win a pair of 2m novices from the front at Uttoxeter and Sandown, and has impressed with his jumping on each occasion.

There will clearly be no easy lead to be had here, while the move away from testing ground is also a concern on paper, but his form in bumpers/over hurdles showed that he needn't be disadvantaged by the faster ground or by racing further back than has been the case. There is no doubt that accurate jumping will be crucial in today's field, and Greywell Boy looks better equipped than most to deal with the demands of a fast-run Ascot chase.

Of the others, Tetlami will be suited by racing right handed on a sound surface, but hasn't looked a natural on any of his chase starts to date, and is likely to make mistakes at a strong pace, while Ballygarvey has twice run poorly when unable to dominate this season. A pace collapse is possible, and Jackie's Solitaire has the right running style to pick up the pieces, but as long as David Bass doesn't get carried away, then a slightly more patiently-ridden Greywell Boy looks the best bet in the race.

The veterans' handicap chase at 16:40 is a cracking contest of its type, and affords Tullamore Dew an opportunity to return belatedly to the winners enclosure. Sloppy jumping has stopped the son of Pistolet Bleu from being a force in the top handicaps, but there is no denying the quality of the engine under his rather battered bonnet, and there are plenty of reasons to believe that he can reward the support of his more patient supporters now.

Nick Gifford's gelding has caught the eye putting in good late work to be placed at Cheltenham on his last 2 starts, most recently in the JLT Specialty at the Festival meeting, and he's been dropped to a mark of 131, which is 8 lb lower than when an excellent second over this C&D last February. The excellent Tom Cannon is able to take a further 3 lb off his back, and he looks poised for a big run.

The gallant Fruity O'Rooney was a place behind the selection at Cheltenham after contesting an overly-strong pace, and has claims of reversing form if able to set easier fractions, but that prospect is far from certain with several others in the field who like to force the issue, and that set-up is again to the potential benefit of Tullamore Dew.

Recommendations:

Both at Ascot

Back Greywell Boy in the 16:00 @ [9.2] (NB)

Back Tullamore Dew in the 16:40 @ [6.6] (NAP)

What's Another Year?

It was Johnny Logan who sang "What's Another Year?" to win Eurovision in 1980, while Abba stormed to international fame on the back of lyrics like "The history book on the shelf...is always repeating itself", and I have a feeling that I've met my Waterloo, or at least my Deja Vu, as I scan the Grand National field.

Here is what I wrote about last year's race: 2012 Grand National Tips

A year later, the only real difference is that On His Own hasn't been any bigger than 20/1, but Cappa Bleu has warmed up with a carbon-copy run in the Ascot handicap he used last year, and Rare Bob one again arrives on the back of a creditable third in the Leinster National.

Of the trio, only Rare Bob can be said not to have justified his place on last year's shortlist, but he had no chance of avoiding a prostrate Noel Fehily after jumping the fifth well, and was brought down. If anything, it's Rare Bob who has enhanced his claims most in the meantime, particularly with the Dessie Hughes team in flying form, in stark contrast to the 2011/12 campaign, and the handicapper has extended the classy gelding some kindness by dropping him 6 lb from last year despite his Naas form showing him to be as good as ever.

If I had to pick one horse in the race to save my life, then it would have to be On His Own, and I wouldn't try to put anyone off him, as there's no doubt he deserves to be clear favourite having shaped so well last year, and comments regarding Cappa Bleu remain valid, but I've been banging the Aintree drum for Rare Bob for the last 2 years, and like Dessie's Army, I'm sticking to my guns!

I won't labour on the rest of the meeting on a day when all eyes are focused on one race, but I must say I was surprised to see former Aintree Hurdle winner Solwhit trading as big as 5/2 for the Liverpool Hurdle this morning, and he's impossible to get away from. Celestial Halo, who he beat in the World Hurdle at Cheltenham, has a dreadful record at Aintree, and can't be fancied to turn the tables, while Smad Place was never a threat on that occasion. It may be Medinas, the Coral Cup winner, and a horse who looks sure to appreciate the step up in trip, who pushes him hardest, but Solwhit looks the banker of the day

Recommendations:

All at Aintree

Back On His Own and Rare Bob in the Grand National @ [12] and [23] respectively

Back Solwhit in the 14:50 Aintree @ [3.4] (NAP)

On The Hunt For Profit

I must admit that I'm hugely looking forward to today's action at Aintree, but after finding that my intended bet in the Topham, Last Time d'Albain had collapsed in price last night, I've had to have a rethink about today's selections. Most of the likeliest winners at Liverpool are now too short to recommend, and I'm heading to the away meetings for a bit of value.

One of the dubious pleasures of my job is writing up plenty of hunter chases, and that's been the case again today, where Sedgefield stage a couple of such events. The difficulty most punters have in assessing (or even accessing) point to point form means that those who specialise in this type of race can gain an edge which isn't easy to find elsewhere, and hopefully that will be to our advantage today.

The 15:55 at Sedgefield is a novice event in which the majority of the field have very little ability, and several of those with form have disappointed between the flags of late (Gin Cobbler and Green de Ciel), leaving only 3 with realistic claims. Of that trio, recent Catterick winner Killary Bay was arguably flattered by being able to dominate a messy affair, and has been beaten in a point since, albeit behind a useful rival. He has claims, but may well be overbet as the only recent Rules winner.

Both Pas de Baratin and Soleil d'Avril are dual winners in the pointing field this spring, and the pair ran on the same Friar's Haugh card last month, the former winning well and the latter a good second in a stronger race, in which he achieved a significantly faster time, and that despite carrying more weight. Soleil d'Avril is also likely to be suited by the way this race is run, with Pas de Baratin a free-going sort who his jockey couldn't hold last time. If he is given his head up front with Killary Bay, then there is a real chance that the pair will cut each other's throats, and leave the way open for the patiently-ridden selection to pick up the pieces.

The concluding contest is a much stronger affair, and one which Special Portrait won last year as part of a 4-timer culminating with success over 33f at Cheltenham in May. He hasn't been in the same form this winter, but may well have won at Carlisle last time but for falling 4 out when in a narrow lead. Given that the runner-up that day was able to win yesterday's Fox Hunters' Chase at Aintree, it seems prudent to take a positive view of the form.

The biggest stumbling block for the Mark Hughes-trained grey is the concession of weight to his rivals, but the booking of promising 7-lb claimer Paddy Gerety (regular rider of top hunter Cottage Oak) is a bonus, as is the defection of likely favourite Cool Mission. Sarah Easterby is represented by the talented Be There In Five, placed in the NH Chase at Cheltenham in 2011, but he's failed to complete more often than not since, including in a point over this trip last month. The main danger is probably Pistolet Time, who has rejoined Caroline Crow after a spell with Anne Hewitt, for whom he was second to the useful That's Rhythm at Bangor a year ago.

At Leicester, a couple have caught my eye, including the much-maligned Magic City (16:05). He will never live up to the huge promise of his juvenile debut win, but is finally on a workable mark, and was much better than the bare result at Ascot on his latter start in 2012. He faces a much easier task today, and ought to go very close.

Recommendations:

Back Soleil d'Avril in the 15:55 Sedgefield @ [4.6] (NAP)

Back Special Portrait in the 17:35 Sedgefield @ [3.65] (NB)

Back Magic City in the 16:05 Leicester @ [5.2]

Believe In Luck

Wetherby's meeting today can hardly be described as pulse-quickening, but the course provides an excellent test, and should throw up true results, something which has been lacking in recent days. Tim Easterby rarely leaves the track without some recompense, and he can provide a winner in the shape of One For Luck, who contests a weak handicap hurdle at 17:10.

One For Luck showed promise when sixth of 15 in a C&D novice back in November 2011 behind useful pair Hazy Tom and Sea of Thunder, but he's not really fulfilled his potential since, largely due to a tendency to race freely. He has shaped better than the bare result in 3 handicap starts since tried in blinkers, however, travelling well to hit the front at Doncaster and Catterick in the autumn, and weakening as if in need of the run after a break at Southwell (21f) last time.

Flash Harriet and Quite Sparky are the pair with the best form in this sphere, but are 0-21 between them in handicaps, while Vodka Red and Desert Nova are hard to fancy after lengthy absences. Greyhope showed initial promise on the Flat for Lucinda Russell, but finished dead last on his handicap bow over timber, so the selection doesn't appear to have a great deal to beat. There is also a paucity of early speed in the contest, and if Dougie Costello can grab the bull by the horns from the outset, he and One For Luck should prove hard to beat.

The 2¾m handicap chase at 16:10 is a much more open affair, but once again lacks an obvious pacesetter other than Caroline Bailey's recent Uttoxeter winner Galway Jack.  The Witness Box gelding is a sound jumper who found plenty for pressure to win on his return from a break, and will be suited by the test provided by Wetherby. With nothing to spoil his rhythm in front, he looks poised to follow up off an 8 lb higher mark.

Recommendations:

Both at Wetherby

Back One For Luck in the 17:10 @ [5.8] (NAP)

Back Galway Jack in the 16:10 @ [3.8] (NB)

Moore To Farm National Prize

There is a myth that the premier long-distance handicap chases are best left to older legs, and that raw youngsters will be found wanting by both the demands on stamina and the rough nature of such events, but that myth has been exploded time and again in the Irish Grand National, where it may surprise many to discover than no less than 77 of the 141 runnings have gone to a horse aged 7 or younger.

Arthur Moore won this contest in 2011 with the 6-y-o Organisedconfusion, the ninth in that age bracket to have won since 1950, and he has a horse in similar mould this year. Like Organisedconfusion, Home Farm hails from a noted staying chase family, his grand-dam Masterstown Lucy better known as the dam of Gold Cup winner Jodami. He also has wasted little time over hurdles before switching to fences, and has shown rapid improvement in a short space of time.

It may only have been a maiden chase he won at Fairyhouse in February, but it was a pretty warm one for the time of year, with his rivals including yesterday's Powers Gold Cup winner Realt Mor, White Star Line, and Marasonnien in opposition. David Casey gave the big gelding what might be called an educational ride, and the son of Presenting jumped with accuracy and enthusiasm in mid-field. When not asked to press on when the pace lifted initially, it looked like Home Farm would finish a respectable fourth or fifth, but after Casey switched to the inner with 2 to jump, his mount really took hold of the bridle, and rose just in front at the last before clearing right away under no more than a hand ride.

That form is hard to knock, with the runner-up going on to finish third in the JLT at Cheltenham, but it's what we didn't see which makes Home Farm so interesting - he's bred to stay well beyond the 21f he tackled that day, and was not asked for maximum effort by his jockey, so there looks to be plenty left to come, and I can't help but feel that an opening mark of 137 may look very lenient in time. Never mind his tender years, and believe in his huge potential.

At Newcastle, it may pay to side with Chris Grant's Leyland in the 15:55, a race which is bigger in numbers than quality. The Peintre Celebre gelding was a fairly useful Flat winner for Dermot Weld last autumn, and showed that he could win races in his new role when fourth in a handicap hurdle at Sedgefield last time. He looked rather unlucky there, in a clear lead when a bad stumble after the second last cost him momentum, and then hampered at the last. He's worth another chance to prove his mark is a lenient one.

Recommendations:

Back Home Farm in the 16:50 Fairyhouse @ [12.5] (NAP)

Back Leyland in the 15:55 Newcastle @ [7.0] (NB)