Leave It To Steve

With the Cheltenham Festival now only a few weeks away, expect to spend the next fortnight or so being bamboozled by “stats” which will purportedly save you the trouble of looking at the reams of form on offer for the all-important big races.  Some of this information will prove thought-provoking, while some, such as the nugget I found last year telling me that “19 of the last 20 winners of race X either raced prominently or were held up” are utter gibberish. The fundamental truth is that the primary job in finding winners is to identify the best horse, and to consider backing said horse when the price dictates.

That looks to be the case in the 15.20 at Fakenham today where Viva Steve really ought to be a clear favourite, but is disputing that spot with Sound Investment. Mick Channon’s son of Flemensfirth has much the best piece of form on offer, and he pulled well clear of the others when second to If In Doubt at Towcester last month. The winner that day had split a pair of subsequent scorers in a strong Folkestone event previously, and plenty of those at Towcester look better than the dead wood they appeared on the day. Race times can be hard to gauge over jumps, but the time of that 2m event compared very favourably with the C&D handicap on the card, and it’s undoubtedly solid. Towcester and Fakenham could hardly be more different, but given that Viva Steve was a promising second on his sole bumper start at Fontwell’s tight circuit, so that can hardly be used as a stick to beat him with. The step up in trip is sure to suit on both pedigree and racecourse evidence, and the standard he sets already surpasses the average required to win a race of this nature according to historical evidence. The doubters will point out that Channon is winnerless in the last fortnight, whereas Paul Nicholls (Sound Investment) and David Pipe (Barney Cool) have had 17 winners between them in the same timeframe. This would only be relevant if Channon’s team was genuinely out of sorts, but the selection ran just a couple of weeks ago and outstripped today’s rivals in terms of performance, while Channon’s last 4 runners have all made the frame, with one of them denied in the very last stride. Sound Investment is undoubtedly a danger, as he was well on top when winning a lesser race at Taunton last time, and his third to Puffin Billy at Newbury reads well. It’s worth bearing in mind that the runner-up that day was a massive outsider, though, and the form is less solid that it first appears.

Sometimes the best horse isn’t the best bet in a race, though, and it would be a stretch to call Arachnophobia a standout in the 15.05 at Lingfield, particularly given a losing run stretching back to March 2010. He did bounce back to form behind a well-handicapped sort at Kempton last time, and is the most obvious front runner in today’s line-up. With most of his main rivals regularly being held up, this looks a good opportunity for Martin Bosley’s gelding to return to winning ways, or at the very least trade at short odds in the run. He’s traded at less than half his BSP on 4 of his last 5 starts, and while not the force of old, it’s worth remembering that he has spent most of his career competing at a higher level than this. Of the others to have led recently, Baby Dottie did too much in front over 6f last time, and wouldn’t have obvious claims of staying this longer trip if ridden in the same fashion, while Hereford Boy is traditionally held up, and a flirtation with forcing the pace over 1m here last time saw him finish weakly, so it remains to be seen whether that experiment is continued. Arachnophobia has gone well when held up before, so doesn’t have to lead, but it seems such tactics will need to be under serious consideration again, given how effective they proved at Kempton.   

I’m not one to tip odds-on shots, but the 4/5 on offer for Discovery Bay in Lingfield’s opener looks much too big, and while the drop to a seller looks an odd move, it’s perhaps significant that Charlie Swan also has him entered in a much more competitive handicap on 

tomorrow’s card. He looks a banker for multiple bets, for those so inclined.

Recommended Bets:

Back Viva Steve  in the 15:20 Fakenham @ [3.45]  (NAP)

Back Arachnophobia  in the 15:05 Lingfield @ [7.0] (NB)

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=108253551&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=108240576&ex=1&origin=MRL

Crawfords Can Take The Biscuit

As usual, the imperious David Cleary will be a hard act to follow after tipping wide-margin winner White Fusion (BSP 13.0) at Catterick yesterday. I can’t hope to match that, but there are a couple of races at Ayr which provide opportunities from a betting perspective.

The name of Crawford has been synonymous with baking in Scotland for 200 years, but it may be the Co.Antrim-based Crawford family who take home a large share of the crumbs today. The operation headed up by licence holder Stuart really is a family affair, as he is ably assisted not only by brother Steven, who rides many of the yard’s runners, but also by siblings Ben and Ross at their base near Larne. The Crawford boys have made a speciality of plundering bumpers in Scotland and the north of England, landing 14 wins from just 46 runners in that sphere in the last 5 seasons, with a further 16 being placed. A reminder of the potency of their bumper operation was served when Legacy Gold scored under a penalty at Catterick yesterday. Further success awaits in the closing race at Ayr today, as Fine Rightly (17:00) bids to follow up an impressive C&D success on his debut last month. On that occasion, the son of Alflora stayed on too strongly for Jim Goldie’s Caledonia to win with a bit up his sleeve. Caledonia did little to dent the fine impression created when finishing a creditable third in the listed bumper at Newbury on Saturday won by Oscar Rock. Ballyben, a further 11 lengths back in third, was another who had scored on debut, and caught the eye when placed on his hurdles debut at Newcastle recently, adding further solidity to the form. Fine Rightly will get plenty of assistance from the saddle, with Steven holding the Fegentri amateur riders’ world title for both Flat and jumps racing. He rode The Cool Guy to win the Grade 2 Aintree bumper in 2005, and also enjoyed big-race success in the Irish Cambridgeshire as an apprentice for Pat Flynn back in the 90’s and is as astute a rider in this sphere as any, adopting tactics to suit his mount, rather than his ego.  Both Lucinda Russell and David Pipe do well in similar races, and their representatives, Island Confusion and Hidden Discounts, merit respect, but the selection looks a cut above the average winner of such events, and can withhold all challenges.  

The Crawford have more family business in the 21f novice chase at 15:25, as Fine Rightly’s half-sister Aibrean returns from an absence to make her debut over the larger obstacles. This former point winner showed near-useful form over hurdles, winning a competitive handicap here before running respectably behind Dynaste in a valuable fixed-brush affair at Haydock in November 2011. Not seen since, it would be easy to assume that she’ll need this run, but the trainer was at pains to book Tony McCoy for the ride, only for the champ to be claimed for likely warm favourite Tap Night. Jason Maguire is an able substitute, and while Tap Night will be hard to beat, it was notable how easy Barry Geraghty was on the horse when running below market expectations at Musselburgh last time, and punters backing McCoy are painfully aware that “never-say-die-Tony” has too often looked like “never-say-go-Tony” on his employer’s Festival-bound runners in recent weeks, making Lucinda Russell’s charge an unappealing bet with his handicap mark still in the balance. The Tracey Shuffle is the only other runner to consider, and is worthy of the utmost respect, but an absence since overjumping on his chase bow at Perth (ostensibly well backed, but that support was in the face of an alarming drift on pre-race favourite Carlito Brigante) is a niggling concern. All in all, Aibrean looks worth chancing at the odds.

Recommended Bets:

Back Fine Rightly  in the 17:00 Ayr @ [2.78]  (NAP)

Back Aibrean in the 15:25 Ayr @ [6.0] (NB)

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=108222155&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=108222149&ex=1&origin=MRL

Clouds Can Provide Silver Lining

Heavy rain has put today’s sole jumps meeting in jeopardy, but every cloud has a silver lining they say, and with Exeter passing its second inspection at 10AM, the way is paved for Oliver Sherwood to have a profitable time of things. Star of the stable is the handsome Puffin Billy, who ought to get the better of what looks a straight march with Tolworth Hurdle winner Melodic Rendezvous, although that is a tight race to call strictly on the figures, and Puffin Billy makes scant betting appeal at 4/6. Rouge Et Blanc is another from the yard to come here at the top of his game, and will take the beating if over the exertions which saw him score at Huntingdon in mid-week, but the best bet is Many Clouds, who lines up in the opening novice hurdle at 14:00. Of 3 last-time-out winners, Just A Par is respected most, but the selection achieved more when finishing a good second under a penalty at Wetherby last time, and would have finished much closer but for conceding a big lead to eventual winner Up And Go. At level weights with his main rivals today, and with waiting tactics likely to prove no stumbling block at this stiff track, Many Clouds can get back to winning ways.

Kim Bailey has never made any bones about the regard in which he’s held Harry Topper (15:00), and the son of Sir Harry Lewis is a short price to win a competitive graduation chase today. It’s worth looking at the prices he’s traded in running when winning, though, and highs of 100 and 1,000 show that it’s his tenacity which has won him races rather than sheer class. His best effort over hurdles also saw him stay on from an impossible position, and he’s recommended as a pre-race lay at odds of 2.2. Those taking the chance on laying him may want to back him back at bigger odds in running to guarantee a profit (he’s yet to run in a race where he hasn’t hit significantly bigger in the run), but there is enough opposition in today’s field for a straight lay to be justified.

Recommended Bets:

Back Many Clouds in the 14:00 Exeter @ [3.2]  (NAP)

Lay Harry Topper in the 15:00 Exeter @ [2.20] (NB)

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=108210455&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=108210459&ex=1&origin=MRL

Battle of The Handicappers

Don McCain rarely goes without a winner when sending horses on the short trip to Bangor, a course which was favoured by his legendary father before him, and it will be a surprise if he has to wait long to add to the burgeoning list of McCain family winners at the charming Welsh track. The opening contest at 13:30 sees him saddle Blackwater King in a race where the respective handicappers at Timeform and the BHA take wildly differing views.  The BHA assessor was so impressed by Golden Hoof’s defeat of Lord Protector and Beckhani at Sandown in December, that he awarded the Oscar gelding a lofty mark of 135, and when he contested the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle over the same C&D last time, he was the highest rated horse in the contest. Timeform were less impressed by the Sandown win, noting that the race was run at no more than a crawl, and that Golden Hoof merely had too much toe for a couple of plodding stayers. Subsequent results suggest the truth is closer to the latter analysis, with Golden Hoof readily outclassed in the Tolworth, and his earlier victims not doing a great deal to boost the form subsequently. Golden Hoof has been dropped 5 lb, but is still considered to be almost a stone superior to McCain’s runner by the BHA, which looks at odds with the evidence of the racecourse to date, as Blackwater King was an excellent second to Renoyr in a handicap at Doncaster last time, and the winner has run well in a better race at Wetherby in recent days. Timeform, in fact, reckon that far from being inferior to his chief rival, Blackwater King is actually a better horse to the tune of 8 lbs, and yet is receiving weight from Golden Hoof, who has a double penalty to carry. I do have a slight concern about the selection’s tendency to race freely, and he didn’t see things out as well as Renoyr having tanked along last time, but I expect him to be too good for the topweight on today’s terms, and he should be the one trading at Evens, and not the other way around. Either way, there is plenty of professional pride to be won and lost, making this one of the most intriguing contests of the whole day.

The 14:35 is another interesting novice hurdle featuring leading hunter My Flora, who has moved to McCain from Sheila Crow for a hurdling campaign, but she was rather disappointing on her first try over the smaller obstacles, and is passed over now. Midnight Appeal is another who has done well as a chaser, and will be popular here given his creditable third in the Grade 2 Bristol Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham in December. That contest has lost some of its lustre since, however, with Coneygree losing his unbeaten record and runner-up Aerial running a poor race at Musselburgh last weekend. Dungeel appears the McCain first-string, and is respected, but the one who makes most appeal is the unexposed O’Faolains Boy, who I had the pleasure of seeing in the flesh at Chepstow on Welsh National day. A rangy, chasing type in appearance, he jumped well in a dispute of the lead, and didn’t need to be asked any serious questions to pull away from his rivals in the straight for a comfortable win. He’ll stay 3m on that evidence (bred to do so in any case), and looks open to more than average improvement. Patrick Corbett takes over from A P McCoy, and the partnership look rock solid to my eyes.

Recommended Bets:

Back Blackwater King  in the 13:30 Bangor @ [2.70]  (NAP)

Back O’Faolains Boy in the 14:35 Bangor @ [3.60] (NB)

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=108176686&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=108176690&ex=1&origin=MRL

Life's A Breeze At Ludlow

Racing over jumps at Carlisle and Ludlow today throws up a few betting opportunities, but arguably none better than Shootin The Breeze in the hunter chase at the Shropshire venue (16:25). The Ray Humphreys-owned gelding has done the rounds in his short career, showing plenty of promise for David Pipe before being transferred by his owner to the yard of Colm Murphy, for whom he took the scalp of the highly-touted Gagewell Flyer when winning a beginners’ chase at Thurles a year ago. He impressed me with his scope that day, and again when a creditable fourth on his handicap bow at Navan in March. It’s easy to forgive a poor run when badly in need of his debut for Jane Western in a better class hunter at Newbury last month, and that should put an edge on him. He’s yet to be tried over 3m, and stamina may seem an issue given his win came over 2m, but he’s quite stoutly bred, being by Alderbrook out of an Old Vic mare. As a lightly-raced 8-y-o, he remains open to improvement over fences, and is worth backing to upset likely favourite Surenaga. Phil Rowley’s gelding had a disappointing campaign last year, but did bounce back to form between the flags when teaming up with Jane Williams and refitted with blinkers in May. His very best form has come on lively ground, though, and he struggled in the mud on his return at Haydock last term.  

At Carlisle, the Pertemps Qualifier (16:05) is arguably the most intriguing contest, and the horse which catches the eye is Jonjo O’Neill’s Shutthefrontdoor. Currently rated 135 by the official handicapper, it could be argued that he won’t want to blow such a potentially lenient mark. A look back at last year’s final of this event at Cheltenham shows that he would have missed the cut, and he really needs to win, or run well in defeat, in order to get the mark he needs to ensure a run. So far, the son of Accordion has been campaigned at around 2m, but he is bred to improve for a longer trip, and while 25f is quite a step up, it’s almost certain that there’s a lot more to come from him. Knockara Beau won this event in 2011, and comes here after an excellent fourth in the Cleeve Hurdle. That shows he’s a threat, but he was allowed to steal a march by the starter at Cheltenham, and is flattered by the bare form of that effort. He faces competition for the lead here from Don McCain’s Corrin Wood, and a contested pace will count against the pair.

Recommended Bets:

Back Shootin The Breeze  in the 16:25 Ludlow @ [8.2]  (NAP)

Back Shutthefrontdoor in the 16:05 Carlisle @ [4.4] (NB)

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=108159268&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=108159249&ex=1&origin=MRL

Not Folly To Back Mulholland Mare

Jump racing on goodish ground is something of a novelty of late, but that is the prospect at Doncaster this afternoon when the key race is the listed 32red Hurdle in which Champion Hurdle contenders Darlan and Rock On Ruby clash. The move away from soft ground will suit both, for all Darlan took the Christmas Hurdle last time in gluepot conditions. He’s my idea of the likeliest winner, but that is reflected in a market price shy of even money, so I’ll look elsewhere for the best bet.

The closing handicap hurdle at 16:35 is a very ordinary affair despite the large field, and few can be seriously fancied. The most interesting runner is Jonjo O’Neill’s Mississippi Blues, who makes his handicap debut. Such runners from Jackdaws Castle have a habit of garnering lenient marks before showing much improved form, but anyone looking to back this one would need to ignore his latest outing at Huntingdon when he weakened abruptly before the race took shape in earnest. I’m inclined to look elsewhere, and Fran’s Folly makes plenty of appeal on her best form. She took time to find her feet last season, but ended the campaign with 2 meritorious performances, and was still in with every chance when falling at Wincanton in March. In need of the run when down the field on her return at Fontwell, she will strip fitter now, and will also appreciate the return to a sounder surface. With improvement to come, she looks a sporting bet at current odds.

Vintage Star looks an obvious starting point in the novice chase at 14:25, given his proven ability over fences and he looks the only obvious pace setter in today’s field. On second glance, however, he may struggle to contain Ruben Cotter who makes his chase debut for the in-form Paul Nicholls yard. His point win is a sign that he will outstrip hurdling ability now tackling regulation fences, and the horse he beat that day is none other than Drinmore Chase runner-up Dedigout. Ruben Cotter has the physique to suggest that he will make the grade as a chaser, and he shaped much better than the bare result when mid-field in a competitive handicap hurdle at Cheltenham’s Open meeting in November. In receipt of 7 lbs from Vintage Star, he’s expected to come out on top, and really should be trading as favourite.

Recommended Bets:

Back Fran’s Folly  in the 16:35 Doncaster @ [10.0]  (NAP)

Back Ruben Cotter  in the 14:25 Doncaster @ [3.05] (NB)

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=108142342&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=108142334&ex=1&origin=MRL

Bank On Young's Veteran

Veterans’ chases have become quite a welcome addition to the jumping calendar, with several old stagers allowed a more realistic chance of being competitive against horses of similar ilk, and Sandown stages such an affair on its all-chase card at 15:00. Several of these are sharply in decline, and neither Mad Max nor Gwanako look quite the horses they were when in the first flush of youth. Pigeon Island is another who has tasted glory on the biggest stage, but has had a lot of racing for one of his age, and the one who looks most likely to rediscover his best is Laura Young’s Tail of The Bank, who is lightly raced and is only having his twelfth outing over obstacles today. He was a promising novice in 2010/11, when runner-up in the valuable Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury, and has hinted that all his old ability remains in 2 runs this term. At Chepstow last time, he made a threatening move on the turn for home before a residual lack of fitness told, and a drop of 4 lbs for that run looks quite generous in the circumstances. He does need to prove that he can handle a right-handed track, as all his runs have come anti-clockwise, but that’s a risk worth taking for a horse who may, rather strangely for a race like this, still have his best days ahead of him.

In the following contest, it’s easy to give chances to most of the field, but the more I look at the race, the more I’m inclined to believe that Mister Hyde remains on a lenient mark despite taking what looked a harsh 13-lb rise for winning at Kempton last time. He proved on that occasion that he truly stays 3m (had been a weak finisher in the past), and I was particularly taken with how easily he seemed to jump out of very deep ground there. Condition will again place a premium on accurate jumping, and in that regard, Mister Hyde looks solid – more so than Summery Justice, who would be my idea of the fly in the ointment, but can still make the occasional bad error. Brackloon High had no excuses behind the selection at Christmas, but has paid him a handsome compliment by winning over the same C&D next time, and that form was further boosted when Politeo, a place in front of Noel Chance’s charge at Kempton, was successful at Wincanton during the week.  If those form lines can be believed, then Mister Hyde is still a step ahead of the assessor. Let’s hope so.

Recommended Bets:

Back Tail of The Bank in the 15:00 Sandown @ [5.6]  (NAP)

Back Mister Hyde  in the 15:35 Sandown @ [5.9] (NB)

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=108132451&ex=1&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=108132453&ex=1&origin=MRL