Reve It Up!

Once again, the feature races are where the winners look easiest to find, but the odds of reward may not be enough to tempt those punters who have so far eschewed the Willie Mullins rollercoaster. While Dynaste looks the one to beat in the opener at 13:30, Mullins is capable of spoiling the party with Aupcharlie, who hasn't been getting home over further, and will find conditions ideal here. The World Hurdle is no longer the penalty kick that it has been for a few years, but Reve de Sivola looks to have outstanding claims after beating Oscar Whisky in the Cleeve Hurdle on Trials Day.

Connections of the runner-up have given a couple of possible excuses for his defeat, such as a feeling he wasn't 100% and that the holding ground was against him, but the going was no kinder for the Nick Williams runner, who has been falsely talked of as a heavy-ground specialist. The fact remains that his outstanding efforts as a novice, both at Cheltenham and Punchestown, came on a lively surface, and he's a lot more adaptable than he's given credit for. Having also slammed last year's third, Smad Place, on his previous start, he should be a clear favourite for this event, but he simply isn't "sexy" enough to grab the wider public attention. He'll look a lot sexier at about half past three.

The Ryanair (14:40) can go to First Lieutenant, who has been involved in a tug-of-war between trainer Mouse Morris and owner Michael O'Leary regarding his target, and it appears that O'Leary has won out. I can't help feeling the gut of his trainer may have been proved right with a huge run in the Gold Cup, but a Ryanair win would obviously be sweet, if somewhat ironic, for the airline's boss. His form, both at the Festival (beat Rock On Ruby in the Neptune in 2011) and this season, where he's put it up to Bob's Worth and Tidal Bay, mark him down as the outstanding candidate for today's race. Cue Card can match him in pure form terms, but not in terms of adaptability, and he seems to need to dominate to show his best form.

If Joe Tizzard can get him into a rhythm off the pace, there is undeniably a big performance in him, but that must be a big "if" on the evidence of the King George, where such tactics saw the horse jump like a pig. Riverside Theatre is the reigning champion, but still looks a million to win when I watch the replay, and a repeat looks no more than a remote possibility, for all Barry Geraghty is a genius in the saddle.  

The handicaps are typically impossible looking, and the results so far have knocked the myth of the well-plotted good thing on the head. I put up Shutthefrontdoor as a likely Pertemps winner before he won a qualifier at Carlisle, and I will stick with him, despite his price collapsing earlier in the week, although I'm inclined to save on an outsider, of which Bakbenscher is arguably most appealing. With Alan King having a 1-2 yesterday in the Coral Cup, it seems odd that his runner here should be trading at around 50, despite some solid handicap form, and a profile that suggests he won't be fazed by the make-up of this race.

Ballynagour is a worthy favourite in the Byrne Group Plate, and isn't one I'd be keen to oppose, but I will once again throw a few shekels at Mister Hyde, who was a selection when falling in the Racing Plus Chase last time. Bless The Wings simply couldn't handle heavy ground last time, and the King runner completes by trifecta there.

The Kim Muir is a race I thought was ideal for Super Duty, but the McCain runners have disappointed this week, and there now look to be plenty of dangers. I have a sneaking suspicion that last year's second, Becauseicouldntsee has been campaigned with this race in mind (races off the same mark after an in-and-out campaign), and I'm likely to play him along with the overpriced Relax, who did too much in front at Sandown last time, and had earlier looked a handicapper to follow.

Cheltenham Recommendations:

Back Reve de Sivola in the 15:20 @ [6.0] (NAP)

Back First Lieutenant in the 14:40 @ [3.55] (NB)

Back Shutthefrontdoor in the 14:05 @ [8.2]

Have A Proper Pont

I've long said that the Champion Chase is the race I'm most looking forward to at this Festival, and the presence of the attacking Mail de Bievre could set the race up to produce the huge performance which has long been in the offing from Sprinter Sacre. Let's hope we see fireworks.

The odds on the Henderson machine are prohibitive, however, and those looking for a banker will get better returns from the exciting Pont Alexandre. Hugely impressive when sauntering away with a Grade 1 hurdle at Navan in December, popping the bubble of Don Cossack in the process, he looked even better under a penalty at Leopardstown the following month, injecting a sharp burst of pace which had his rivals beaten off in strides. The bare form makes him a narrow pick from The New One, but it's the untapped potential of Willie Mullins' gelding which marks him as an outstanding bet. He's barely turned a hair in beating good horses, and the notion posited in places that these have been tactical affairs is wide of the mark. He has all the gears, and can prove a cut above today's rivals.

The New One will be popular after Ackertac's big run yesterday helped allay fears over the form of Nigel Twiston-Davies' yard. I've always liked him, but there is a feeling he's shown all he can do in this sphere, and he'll need to find a bit extra if he's to win what looks a strong Neptune, in which both Taquin de Seuil and Rule The World have also been touted by their connections. The former is much shorter than his bare form merits, though, and the one who worries me most is Rule The World, who left Minsk (and Champagne Fever) for dead on his latest outing, and is hard to dismiss with confidence. He'll do well to get the better of Pont Alexandre, though, and the German bred can complete a double at the meeting for Rich Ricci.  

The RSA is an intriguing contest in which it looks possible to oppose Unioniste on ground which looks no worse than good to soft, especially with his defeat of Hadrian's Approach at Newbury failing to impress. Boston Bob will be popular, but took an age to pick up before winning the P J Moriarty at Leopardstown, and he got too much credit for that win. Both Lord Windermere and Lyreen Legend shaped better for much of that contest, and are arguably overpriced. The one I like is Lyreen Legend, who jumped really well there, leading over the last but overhauled on the long drag to the line. He didn't go down without a fight, and his positioning on the inner and at the head of affairs were probably against him given how that race was run. He's probably not a Gold Cup contender, and has never been one to garner much attention, but he's thoroughly professional, and while he fell when going well at Leopardstown over Christmas, has looked an assured jumper. That's a comment which can't be applied to Hadrian's Approach, while the exciting Goulanes comes here with just one chase outing, which is almost unheard of in such a contest. With cracks in his main rivals, Lyreen Legend looks a solid win and place bet.

The Coral Cup (16:00) is the big betting event, and both Abbey Lane and Pendra look strong contenders, but are priced accordingly. I think it may be worth casting a few bob in the direction of Barbatos, though. Ian Williams' grey had really solid form as a novice last year, when only Simonsig and Fingal Bay stopped him remaining unbeaten. He handles this track very well, and his form looks even better with the benefit of hindsight. Patently in need of the run on his return here in January behind Mr Watson, he was notably looked after, and while the injury which kept him off the track for over a year is always a cloud over him, he remains a horse of some potential over hurdles. Williams is well capable of laying one out, and while a fuller campaign would have helped answer a couple of questions, they potential pay-off makes the associated risk worthwhile.

Elsewhere, I was tempted by Back In Focus in the 4-miler, but he's looked a mudlark in his career to date (one run on good ground was a poor one), and that's enough to put me off. The Sprinter Sacre/Sizing Europe exacta in the Champion Chase looks solid, but it's possible that one ridden purely for a place, perhaps Wishfull Thinking, may spoil the party, while The Fred Winter has more plots than a soap-writers convention. It's been mentioned elsewhere that Sizing Tennessee is overpriced in the bumper as he appears the Mullins third string. That's a salient point, and the ride has always been Andrew Lynch's, so the fact that Ruby is on Briar Hill shouldn't put punters off.

Cheltenham Recommendations:

Back Pont Alexandre in the 14:05 @ [2.58] (NAP)

Back Lyreen Legend win and place in the 14:40 @ [13.5] and [4.0] (NB)

Back Barbatos in the 16:00 @ [25.0]

Keep On Truckin'

It's Grand Military day at Sandown, and while the era when intrepid cavalrymen were the darlings of the steeplechasing world is long since gone, it's still a tradition which should be cherished. Many punters may not feel so warmly about the event, as they try to work out whether Lance Bombardier Sally Randell is a better rider than Staff Sergeant Ben Moore (I couldn't possibly comment), or whether Flight Lieutenant Camilla Howard is serious about her ride in the big race, or merely 'orsing about.

Such concerns aside, there still look to be a couple of outstanding bets on the card, the first of which comes in the opening race for military amateur riders (14:20). There are a number of horses here who have been hinting at better in recent starts, such as Van Diemens Land (raced on unfavoured inner at Fontwell last time), Nemo Spirit (caught the eye at Plumpton last twice) and Walden Prince (yard flying, and went well for a long way here last time), but the clear pick on recent form is Prickles, for whom the fitting of a hood has coincided with a return to her best, and she's able to race off a lower mark than when beaten a short head in a 13-runner handicap at Wincanton 9 days ago. She'll be 7 lb higher for future engagements, and looks sure to be suited by a test of stamina at the trip, especially with the forecast rain likely to remove any "good" from the going description. Today's rider, Captain Max Chenery may be a maiden under Rules, but has enjoyed success in similar events in the point to point arena.

A more appealing race for most punters is the Charles Stanley Handicap Hurdle at 16:00, in which the professionals can strut their stuff. The standout bet is Cockney Trucker, a horse who has been frustrating for the simple reason that he's been hugely consistent in similar races, and has been in the handicapper's grip for some time. A poor start to the season saw the assessor extend some mercy, however, and his mark dropped from 142 to 130 in just a few runs. He showed he was no back number at Doncaster last weekend on his first start since being bought by J.P McManus from trainer Philip Hobbs, and very nearly landed something of a touch as he pulled clear with the progressive Aaim To Prosper.

That run suggested that the 11-y-o has lost little of his old dash, and he gets a chance to show he can make his lenient mark pay today. I don't believe that there is anything at all wrong with the horse's fortitude, but such concerns are likely to keep his price realistic. It's worth bearing in mind that he will have been bought with a view to running in one of the handicaps at Cheltenham next week (Coral Cup his most likely option), but would need to pick up a penalty today if he's to have a chance of making any of those Festival engagements.

At Ayr, I thought the 15:10 was a fascinating contest, and considered weighing in with bottom-weight Nodda High Kid, the only horse ever to beat the brilliant but ill-fated Brindisi Breeze, and able to race off a mark of 104 on his handicap bow. That may end up looking very lenient, and he's one to bear in mind at inflated odds.

Recommendations:

Both at Sandown

Back Cockney Trucker in the 16:00 @ [3.0] (NAP)

Back Prickles in the 14:20 @ [4.9] (NB)

De Haan Runner A Stout Bet

Big fields are the order of the day at Wincanton, and while the racecourse debut of Best Mate's half-brother Pure Oxygen may be the highlight for many, it's the novice hurdles into which I prefer to dip my toes.

Strongest bet of the day is in the 16:05 in a race which appears to be a match between The Stout Italian and Karinga Dancer on hurdles form, with Even If adding a hint of intrigue in the McManus silks. Of the trio, it's easiest to rule out the last named, as the form of his bumper debut win hasn't worked out to well, and he shaped like a horse with physical problems last time. He's have claims if bouncing back, but Jonjo O'Neill's softly-softly approach with his novice hurdlers suggests he's one for a later date.

Karinga Dancer is marginal pick on the figures, but it's worth noting that the Fontwell event in which he finished second came back in November 2011, and in a race which was somewhat farcical, the front 2 poaching a big early lead. He's clearly been hard to train, and while successful in a jumpers' bumper at Kempton last time, isn't certain to build on that back on turf. On the other hand, The Stout Italian looks to be firmly on the up, and he matched his best bumper form when chasing home Utopian at Ludlow on his hurdles bow. That horse may have disappointed yesterday, but it's fair to say he received minimal assistance from the saddle, and he remains with some potential, so it was a decent effort for Ben de Haan's runner to pull clear with him off a slowish pace. There's little doubt in my mind that there's more to come from the son of Milan, and he already looks good enough to win an event of this nature. He should be clear favourite, and odds of 3.3 or thereabouts seem more than fair.

In the previous contest, the case for Oscar Zulu is a lot less obvious, but he makes plenty of appeal based on the impression he left in bumpers for James Motherway, and he shaped much better than the bare result in a bog at Taunton on his debut for Philip Hobbs in December. On that occasion he travelled smoothly in a dispute of the lead for a long way, and was looked after when getting tired and blundering 3 out. The Hobbs team are in very good form at present, and Oscar Zulu is capable of leaving that form well behind now.

Brinestine would be a danger on his Flat form, and has been talked of in glowing terms by Paul Nicholls, but he took a nasty fall when beaten on his hurdles bow in the Chatteris Fen at Huntingdon, and it's possible that will have left a mark. Titus Mills was behind The Stout Italian at Ludlow, where the slow pace would have suited, and he needs to do more, while the others have yet to achieve a great deal, for all a few are unexposed. Backing Oscar Zulu is undoubtedly something of a risk, but he is certainly well up to winning a novice hurdle, and looks too big in the early betting.

Recommendations:

Both at Wincanton

Back The Stout Italian in the 16:05 @ [3.25] (NAP)

Back Oscar Zulu in the 15:35 @ [16.5] (NB)

Whitney Can Prove a Hit

Most intriguing race of the day for me is the 19f handicap hurdle at Exeter (15:00), which looks fiendishly difficult at first glance. My conclusion on analysing the contest was that it would, in all likelihood, go to one of a trio of unexposed handicap debutants comprising Tolkein's Tango, Presenting Arms and Definite Dream. I still hold to that view, but I couldn't help being drawn to the claims of the lowly-rated Courting Whitney, who I believe is capable of outrunning her odds by some way.

Courting Whitney, a daughter of Witness Box, caught the eye a couple of times during the summer before winning on good ground at Worcester in July, her tendency to race smoothly often seeing her in-running price collapse quite briskly. She has been well held in 3 runs on unsuitably heavy ground this winter, but has now dropped to just 3 lb above her last winning mark. Even when pulled up at Wincanton last time, she did enough to tempt backers into taking single figures about her in the run, and with the drying ground very much in her favour, I envisage her running a big race at juicy odds. I will put her up as a straight win bet for simplicity, but I'd be disappointed if she doesn't provide a trading opportunity for those so inclined, and that, or an each-way play, seems the best way to profit from her.

At Newcastle, Phil Kirby can enhance a good recent record when saddling Matthew Riley in the opening novice hurdle (14:20). Kirby has recently taken over the yard from which Kate Walton used to operate, although the redoubtable Mrs Walton remains a major cog in the wheel at Sharp Hill. Matthew Riley was easily the best of this bunch in bumpers, finishing an excellent fourth in the Aintree Bumper behind Steps To Freedom and Montbazon, who both took high order as novice hurdlers last season. An absence of 23 months is clearly a concern, but connections have kept the faith with the son of Dr Massini, and his pedigree suggests he will do just as well over obstacles as in his previous sphere. The oddsmakers have taken something of a chance by making this talented sort a double-figure price, and it's worth chancing his fitness.

Recommendations:

Back Courting Whitney in the 15:00 Exeter @ [34.0] (NAP)

Back Matthew Riley in the 14:20 Newcastle @ [10.0] (NB)

By George, He's Got It!

It hasn't been a great weekend for Kim Bailey, his pragmatic decision to miss the Cheltenham Festival with stable star Harry Topper backfiring when that one unshipped Timmy Murphy at Kelso yesterday, but I'm sure a Sunday winner will help put a smile back on his face, and he has good prospects of landing the 15:00 at Huntingdon with Smokey George.

The son of Kadastrof impressed when winning an admittedly weak race at Exeter in November, jumping better than his rivals before pouncing at the last to win with a bit to spare. I feel that effort can be marked up, as the need to bypass several fences due to low sun didn't play to his advantage for obvious reasons. That run came on going officially described as good to soft, and he couldn't match that effort in the mud at Wincanton next time, despite again travelling well. He has won on heavy, but Bailey feels that he's essentially a good-ground performer, and his absence since December has been planned to coincide with a spring campaign.

The mercurial (cf infuriating) Nick Scholfield is back on board, and his waiting style should again suit the shape of this race, with no shortage of prominent racers in opposition. Of the others, a case can be made for most on some formline or other, with Five Rivers well treated on the form he'd have shown at Kempton 2 starts ago, and Amroth Bay back to his last winning mark. Throw in unexposed handicap debutant Twyford and the consistent pair Last Shot and Midnight Macarena, and it's clearly an open race, but that quintet all have issues (can't jump, yard in woeful form, yet to show much, weak finisher, handicapped to the hilt) and Smokey George gets the vote. Those looking for an outsider could do worse than Time Do, who suffered a breathing problem last time, and is another who may well thrive away from heavy ground. His yard is back among the winners, and he looks saver material.

At Sedgefield, the pick of the card is a decent bumper at 16:20, in which Master Rajeem looks the pick. Bumper form can be hard to evaluate, but with a trio of C&D winners in the line-up, this one is much easier to assess. The marginal pick on form, Alan Swinbank's charge gained his win despite racing on the slowest ground, and the opposition he beat looked much stronger that the motley bunch slammed by Izzini earlier in the campaign. Enchanted Garden makes up that threesome, and he might prove a bigger danger despite running around in front last time. That was his third race, though, and he doesn't have the scope of the selection.

The market is made to some extent by Don McCain's newcomer Moss Cloud, who won an Irish point in January, but he's a 3m chaser in the making if pedigree is any guide, and it's debatable whether he will have the speed to deal with the sharp-looking Master Rajeem. For those who like an historical perspective, it's worth noting that while McCain took this last year, it's a race which Swinbank used as a prep for 2007 Aintree bumper winner Theatrical Moment, while another 4-y-o, Sir Tantallus Hawk, scored for him in 2008.

Recommendations:

Back Smokey George in the 15:00 Huntingdon @ [7.4] (NAP)

Back Master Rajeem in the 16:20 Sedgefield @ [2.84] (NB)

Scott Chaser Worth The Risk

Jeremy Scott has rightly gained a reputation for punching above his weight as a trainer of jumpers, and the fact that his Melodic Rendezvous has burst the bubble of several higher profile rivals en route to the Supreme Novices' Hurdle is testament to his skills.

Scott does very well with horses he's inherited from other yards, and gets a chance to show what he can do when saddling Risk in the 15:30 at Newbury, a novices' handicap chase over 2¾m. The 10-y-o gelding was a talented novice over hurdles, his best effort for Charlie Egerton being a defeat of the exciting William's Wishes at Fontwell. He's had his problems since then, and has only been seen under Rules twice since 2009. Those runs came in a pair of hunter chases last spring for the yard of Rilly Goschen, and he showed that much of his ability was intact in finishing third in above-average events at Stratford and Southwell. The latter contest pitched him in against 2 of the sharper hunters in the country in I Have Dreamed and Rash Move, and he wasn't disgraced despite being left behind by that pair in the latter stages.

The handicapper has been given a headscratcher with Risk, and has allotted him a mark of 107, which is harsh enough on the bare form he showed last year, but lenient based on what he achieved over hurdles. He's not one to take skinny odds about as a result, but in a race which looks tightly knit on the whole, he's one of few who could conceivably be on the wrong mark. Another is Representingceltic, who has shown promise in better company before finding his niche in jumpers' bumpers of late, and he would look a snip if able to translate that dash back to fences now. Sir Frank found only old favourite Denali Highway too strong at Huntingdon, and deservedly heads the market, but at odds of 25.0, it's worth taking a chance on Risk.

On a similar theme, the handicapper has had little chance to judge Henry Hurst (16:35) on his merits as a chaser, with the Toby Balding-owned gelding crashing out early on debut, and palpably out of his depth behind a quartet of Cheltenham Festival fancies at this track last time. Bred to be a chaser, and having already been placed in the point field, it seems very bold of the official assessor to allot Henry Hurst a mark 5 lb lower than the one off which he was a good third over hurdles at Worcester in May. It may prove that he's inferior in this sphere, but there simply isn't the evidence to suggest as much at this stage, and he's sure to be suited by the better ground he'll race on today (seems well suited to a sound surface over hurdles). His jumping is clearly a concern, but he did attack his fences with gusto at Taunton before tipping up, and his physical bearing mark him out as one who will do significantly better at some point. Hopefully he'll do so today.

Recommendations:

Both at Newbury

Back Risk in the 15:30 @ [25.0]

Back Henry Hurst in the 16:35 @ [12.0]