Thursday, 28 February 2013
Hell For Leather
Today's jumps meetings at Taunton and Ludlow today look pretty trappy, and the best bet of the day may well come over at Southwell, where Hellbender (16:50) looks to have outstanding claims at the weights in a 6f handicap big on numbers, but decidedly lacking in depth. An improved performer since switching to the Worksop yard of Shaun Harris and tried in a tongue tie, Hellbender has also been given a real chance by the handicapper before his new mark kicks in.
A winner over 7f here earlier in the month, he improved again to go down narrowly to the well-handicapped Light Burst over the same distance, showing an excellent attitude to rally after being passed by the winner. That was all the more meritorious, as he was 3 lb out of the weights, and was unable to get an easy time at the head of affairs. He's been reassessed for that run, but is able to race of his old mark here, so is effectively 3 lb lower than for that effort, and 5 lb "well in" based on his future mark.
A draw in the widest stall of all (Upper Lambourn, due to race from 14 is a non runner) is nothing like the disadvantage it's perceived to be over 6f at Southwell, and Hellbender has the early speed to sit handy, and crucially avoid kickback. If doing so, he looks much the likeliest winner, and the presence of the mercurial Michael Murphy on his back is another positive, with the rider having a 3 from 7 record for the often-underestimated Harris yard.
The danger on form is Nant Saeson, but he is untried on the surface, which is always a concern. As a son of Elusive City, he ought to take to the surface, but that's still something of a gamble. One who may be overpriced on form is Steel City Boy, who will be ridden as usual by Ann Stokell, and won't attract the cash as a result, but he's been running well despite the rider's limitations of late, and could prove a threat if Stokell can negotiate a path from the inside berth.
One trainer who is enjoying a great time of things since Southwell was passed fit for racing again is Mick Appleby, of whom I've been a big fan for some time. His record with fibresand runners in 2013 is an amazing 7 wins from 7 runs, and he'll be looking to add a couple more courtesy of The Lock Master (16:20) and Our Ivor (17:20).
The latter appears to have outstanding claims, and is a bet if odds against in the last, but for my second selection, I'll row in with The Lock Master, who has yet to win off a mark in the 80's, but who faces a weaker field than he might in this grade. The selection was arguably fortunate to score over 1m here last time, with the overly-strong pace setting things up for him, but he'll be better served by the longer trip on this occasion, and appears to have only Honest Deal to beat. Ascendant is also quite strong in the market, but I'm reluctant to back a 7-y-o who has yet to taste competitive action on the Southwell track.
Recommendations:
Both at Southwell
Back Hellbender in the 16:50 @ [5.1]
Back The Lock Master in the 16:20 @ [3.25]
Wednesday, 27 February 2013
Evan Help Us!
Llancarfan handler Evan Williams did this column a good turn
when Tornado In Milan won at Plumpton on Monday in the colours of Angela
Rucker, and I’m hopeful the same combination can come up trumps again today.
The pair are represented in a competitive handicap at Wincanton (15:30) by the
progressive Islandmagee, a recruit from the
Crawford yard near Larne from which the name derives.
Islandmagee had hinted at improvement before landing a
conditional jockeys’ contest at Kempton last time under Adam Wedge, and while
that was a rather messy contest, there are reasons for believing the son of
Heron Island is much better than the bare result. The slow pace rather
flattered runner-up Star of Massini, who was able to dictate, and it was no
great surprise to see him beaten by the aforementioned Tornado In Milan the
other day, but both the winner and the third did well to come from off that
stop/start gallop, and Thundering Home backed that point up by winning well at
Sandown on Friday. Wedge was at pains to put the selection into the race
as late as possible at Kempton, and a minor error at the last mean that he was
only able to put his head in front on the line. It was obvious that he was
going like much the best horse from some way out, however, and he’s likely to
prove that point today, when a stronger gallop is sure to suit his style of
racing.
There are plenty of dangers despite the small field, and In
The Crowd is the only one who can’t be fancied.
Suerte Al Salto and Tiny Tenor both give the impression there’s more to
come now they go handicapping for the first time, while Home Run and Xaarcet
have been making hay already at this level, and can boast 8 wins between them
this season. That quartet all command respect, and the hope is that the current
odds on Islandmagee will drift as race time
approaches. Such a scenario would be no great concern, for all he makes plenty
of appeal at current odds.
Over at Bangor, I’m hoping that the form of another recent
selection can be boosted by Bobby Dove in the 17f
handicap chase for novices at 16:50. Bobby Dove is a son of 1994 Champion
Hurdle winner Flakey Dove, and like most from that renowned damline, races in
the red and yellow colours of the Price family. He showed little in his early
starts, but has improved over fences of late, and caught my eye when attempting
to give Denali Highway a race at Leicester in December. He duly built on that
promise when winning next time, and was rather unlucky not to follow up at
Ludlow a week ago, looking sure to overhaul Oranger when a last-fence error saw
him lose vital momentum. His jumping remains a minor worry, but the fences at
Bangor are more forgiving than most, and this looks a weaker contest.
Tara Rose
was suited by the run of the race when giving an idling Violin Davis a scare
here last time, and may be flattered by that bare form, especially with the
drop in trip a slight negative, and the main danger looks to be Victor Dartnall’s
Starsky des Mottes, who is gradually progressive, and ran his best race when
second at Uttoxeter last time. A 5 lb rise for that defeat looks enough,
though, and Bobby Dove looks the clear pick of the
weights.
Recommendations:
Back Islandmagee
in the 15:30 Wincanton @ [4.5] (NAP)
Back Bobby
Dove in the 16:50 Bangor @ [3.5] (NB)
Monday, 25 February 2013
Queen For A Day
It’s not the most sparkling of
cards at Plumpton today, but there are winners to be had, and hopefully I’ve found
one whose claims are much clearer than some poor form figures would imply. The
horse in question is Southway Queen (16:40), who
has achieved very little under Rules, but who has a lowly mark as a result, and
several reasons for thinking improvement is in the offing. The mare is by
obscure West Country sire Morpeth, and an own-sister to Southway Star, who has won
7 times for trainer Susan Gardner having (like most by the sire) started off
with Jimmy Frost. Like her sister, Southway Queen
was well held in bumpers for the patient Frost yard and had one fruitless spin
over hurdles before moving on, and in the intervening years has been quite
successful in points, winning 2 and finishing second 4 times. A belated return
to timber this winter has seen her make the requisite appearances to gain a
handicap mark, and those runs came over inadequate trips, and without recourse
to a hard ride on either occasion. Suitably qualified, she now steps up to 21f
and gets the help of a tongue tie for the first time under Rules. Those factors
are likely to see considerable improvement, and the shrewd, but underrated
Gardner could see boost an already healthy 17% strike-rate in handicaps over
recent years.
The main danger, to my eyes at
least, is topweight Midnight Belle, who travelled notably well before failing
to stay 3m under a huge weight at Taunton last time. The winner of that
contest, Tarabela, followed up at Towcester yesterday, and it would be best to
mark that performance up. Lady of Geneva kept on stoutly in a 3¼m handicap at
Huntingdon last time, and may do better, but she clearly lacks pace, and this
sharp track and drop in trip aren’t sure to suit.
One who looks sure to be suited
by the nature of the Plumpton circuit, and indeed by a move away from heavy
ground is Tornado In Milan, who runs in the 2m
handicap hurdle at 15:10. Evan Williams’ Irish import looked a good prospect on
his bumper debut for Eoin Doyle, but his keen nature has prevented him from
building on that promise, for all he scored on his UK debut. He’s been hinting
at better in recent starts, though, and a third to the much-vaunted Mr Mole at
Taunton last time represented his best effort over hurdles. With runner-up Home
Run going close next time, and fourth-placed Marie des Anges bolting up over
fences, the form looks solid. That came in a hood, which is retained in a bid
to keep this excitable sort settled, and Tornado In Milan
is capable of running these ragged if ridden aggressively, which is admittedly
not usually the Paul Moloney way.
Of the opposition, Star of Massini
is still a maiden, and may prove flattered by getting the run of things at
Kempton last time, while it would be dangerous to assume that Right Stuff was
really back in the groove when winning a Flat claimer at Lingfield last time in
which sole serious opponent La Estrella wasn’t seen to best effect. Brody Bleu
is interesting on handicap bow for rookie handler Robert Walford, but the merit
of his easy point win a year ago is hard
to gauge (to put it kindly), and a long absence is hardly cause for optimism.
Recommendations:
Both At Plumpton
Back Southway Queen in the 16:50 @ [8.6] (NAP)
Back Tornado In Milan in the 15:10 @ [4.3] (NB)
Saturday, 23 February 2013
Have Your House On Brick
With the clock firmly ticking on the countdown to the Cheltenham Festival, Kempton's Racing Plus-sponsored card has traditionally provided a last opportunity for the big yards to unleash their novice hurdle trump cards. It's a meeting which has seen a first UK sight of Triumph Hurdle winners Soldatino and Zarkandar in 2 of the last 3 years, and one which has played a big part in shaping the Triumph Hurdle result - its proximity to Cheltenham in terms of time much more important than the topography of the track. The Adonis Hurdle has been the historical Triumph prep race, but in recent years, the all-aged Dovecote Hurdle has also been dominated by the juvenile division, with Triumph favourite Grumeti beating Paul Nicholls' Dodging Bullets in 2012, and 2 of the previous 3 winners also 4-y-o's.
This year, Nicholls has made no secret of the regard in which he holds Lac Fontana, and the ex-French gelding is owned by the same partnership of Jared Sullivan and Chris Giles, although it's the silks of Sullivan's company Potensis which he sports today. Bold words at Nicholls' pre-Festival press day have seen his Triumph odds clipped, and he is clear favourite for today's race based on that opinion, rather than what he achieved when runner-up in a distinctly ordinary Newbury novice first time out. There's no doubt he's open to stacks of improvement, and the trainer's opinion is respected, but it seems to me that the outstanding candidate in this contest has been ignored simply because we already know how good he is. That horse is Brick Red, and he mustn't be underestimated.
Brick Red hasn’t come the traditional route to the Dovecote (Kempton 15:15), and isn’t a sexy, lightly-raced novice with an exotic history. He’s a hardened campaigner who made his hurdles debut almost a year ago, and has shown a liking for a sharp 2 miles on a flat, right-handed track. His impressive win in the Scottish County Hurdle at Musselburgh early this month is without doubt the strongest form on offer here, and he has ideal conditions to repeat that performance. Unlike Lac Fontana and Black Spirit, he doesn’t hold fancy entries in Grade 1 company at Cheltenham, with the County Hurdle his sole option. That has clearly put punters off him, but it really shouldn’t, as he’ll surely be primed for a big run, and while unlikely to take another leap forward in form terms, already has a comfortable cushion based on the published ratings. He’s a massive 27 lbs clear of Lac Fontana on the figures, even when taking weight-for-age and penalties into account, and simply should not be a bigger price than that rival.
Of the others, former Hunt Cup winner Forgotten Voice had his stamina stretched when a fair fourth on his handicap bow over C&D last time. He’s will need a sharp 2m to be seen to best effect over hurdles, and today’s better ground will help him get home, but he really can’t be supported until showing he can channel his energy more efficiently. Black Spirit showed his best form on the Flat last autumn and has been nibbled at for the Supreme Novices’ on the back of positive home reports. Barry Geraghty will be otherwise engaged for that race, so Andrew Tinkler gets a feel of him today. He’s not one to dismiss as the yard’s neglected for that reason, but faces a stiff task on his first try over hurdles. That comment applies also to Figaro, for whom a long absence and lack of any big-race entries are both significant negatives. It’s interesting that Alan King pitches Fair Trade into this race, as he’s likely to blow a potentially lenient handicap mark if going close, but is another whose form is likely to take off at some stage this spring. All in all, though, Brick Red looks much the safest bet.
In the feature handicap at 15:50, I can't argue with the pair who head the market, with marginal preference for Rolling Aces, given Wyck Hill won't get an easy lead, but I will risk ridicule by sticking with a horse who let me down badly last time. Mister Hyde is arguably well named, with a good run often followed by a horror story, but I'm grateful to Dan Kelly for pointing out an interesting pattern in his form. Whether it's salient or mere coincidence is debatable, but all the gelding's poor runs have come when partnered by Richie McLernon, and the jockey was certainly at fault in going off like a scalded cat on this dubious stayer at Sandown last time. He did trade at odds on before capitulating there, and had earlier shown that Kempton's 3m trip suited ideally when storming clear under Jason Maguire at the King George meeting. He's an all-or-nothing character, but does appeal as a likely player on one of his going days, and he's nothing like the rag that his current odds suggest.
Recommendations:
Back Brick Red in the 15:15 Kempton @ [4.0] (NAP)
Back Mister Hyde in the 15:50 Kempton @ [50.0] (NB)
Thursday, 21 February 2013
My Way Or The Highway
Caroline Bailey has a deserved
reputation as one of the country’s leading horsewomen, and the daughter of the
legendary Dick Saunders was not only the first woman to ride a winner at
Cheltenham (on Frank Gilman’s Ptarmigan in 1978), but has handled superb
jumpers like Teaplanter, Teeton Mill, Castle Mane and Gunner Welburn to success
in points/hunters. Her trademark has always been the ability to school her
young chasers to an exceptional standard, and that was again in evidence when Denali Highway made a most impressive handicap chase debut at Leicester in December. The gelding won a bumper on his
racecourse debut before failing to progress over timber for Alan King, but
looked transformed when seeing off his opposition in a novice handicap with contemptuous
ease. The only one to give him any kind of race was next-time-out winner Bobby
Dove, but a huge leap at the last open ditch had that one crying enough, and
the race was over long before he strolled across the line. The son of Governor
Brown has taken a rise of 10 lbs for that win, but in my opinion he had plenty
more up his sleeve than that, and the jumping test provided by Huntingdon will
suit him to a tee. He’s built to carry weight, so conceding lumps to inferior
rivals should be no problem, and he looks decidedly overpriced at around 9/2.
Of the others, Cruchain would be a big danger if avoiding mistakes, but he’s
virtually guaranteed to clout at least one fence these days, and that militates
against his chances despite his mark being undeniably lenient. Grey Missile was a selection for this column
last time, and is another on a good mark, but his tendency to carry his head on
one side when asked to challenge then is somewhat off-putting, and perhaps the
biggest danger will be bottom-weight Join The Navy, who will be picking up
ground late, and could benefit if the pace is overly strong.
The following novice chase is something
of a conundrum, with 3 looking closely matched on form, but none of the trio
having fully convinced with their jumping. Tetlami is the obvious favourite
despite being put firmly in his place by Overturn at Musselburgh last time, and
the fact he was chasing such a classy rival perhaps forgives his sticky jumping
there, but he’s very short in the betting, and it may be worth chancing Act of Kalanisi at the prices. Richard
Newland’s gelding is best on a right-handed track and while he’s
fallen/unseated on his last 2 starts, his jumping is no more of a concern than
that of Tetlami and Tony Star (beaten when falling last time). Odds of 6/1+ on
Betfair are overly generous on balance.
Recommended Bets:
Back Denali Highway in the 14:30 Huntingdon @ [5.3] (NAP)
Back Act of Kalanisi in the 15:00 Huntingdon
@ [7.2] (NB)
Tuesday, 19 February 2013
Order Me A Double
It’s been a fruitful
season for Slad-based trainer Tom George, and Seigneur des Bois provided
another debutant winner for the yard at Ffos Las on Sunday. He sends the
appropriately-named Good Order up to
Wetherby (15:15) today, and looks to have found an ideal opening for the Alflora
gelding who carries the colours of Sharon Nelson, best known as part-owner of
George’s Cheltenham Festival winner Galileo. Good Order scored in similar conditions to today’s at Wincanton
last season, and made a satisfactory return when second to handicap blot
Ballygarvey at Lingfield last time. He’ll be sharper for that belated return,
and with question marks over his main rivals, ought to get back to winning
ways. No Secrets has been backed into favouritism after winning at Taunton last
time, but that race was gifted to him by the frustrating Fine Parchment, who
had the race in safe keeping until stopping to nothing on the run-in, a feat he
repeated to some degree at Sandown last Friday. That win clearly flatters No
Secrets to some degree, and he’s not been the most robust in the past, so makes
very little appeal at current odds. The main threat may well come from See U
Bob, who was capable of better form in his days with Paul Nolan, and who shaped
as if ready to peak when chasing home Buddy Bolero at Leicester last time. The
longer trip is a slight concern, but he saw things out well enough there and
represents an attractive forecast option.
One of the more interesting races of
the day is the 16:15 Taunton, where a few of the runners look potential “plot”
horses, most notably the topweight Bold Raider who has been unsighted in 3
starts for Jonjo O’Neill. Others to catch the eye are Posh Emily (course
specialist who has been running without preferred headgear this season) and
Jimmy Frost’s French import Sarenice, who won a bumper for his previous yard,
and has been handled with extreme patience by the Champion Hurdle-winning former
jockey. Sometimes you can’t spot the wood for the trees, though, and there is a
much more obvious winner in the race who has shown his worth more recently. Admiral Blake is no star, as his
official mark of 69 testifies, but he’s run very well to finish second to a
pair of subsequent winners on 2 of his last 3 starts, and there is no doubt
that he’s capable of winning a race of his current lowly rating. A 10-length
beating by Fabreaga at Lingfield was a fair effort, but an even better one when
noting how far he came clear of the field, and the winner defied an 8 lb rise
to beat 17 others at Kempton last time. The handicapper has been kind to leave
Laura Young’s 6-y-o on the same mark as for that effort, and he’s sure to go well
– perhaps he can foil a coup in the process!
Recommended Bets:
Back Good Order in the 15:15 Wetherby @ [3.2] (NAP)
Back Admiral Blake in the 16:15 Taunton
@ [5.0] (NB)
Sunday, 17 February 2013
Get What You Want At Ffos Las
Pickings are very much on the slim
side at Ffos Las and Market Rasen today, and finding a reliable betting medium
isn’t easy. There are few obvious bets around, but a bit of digging will
hopefully gain its reward.
At Ffos Las, the “Braceys The Friendly Builders
Merchant” Novices´ Handicap Chase at 14:50 is a race which makes minimal appeal at first glance, with only
Orange Nassau and Derwen Pride having shown any form last time out. That pair
are expected to dominate if the market is to be believed, but neither looks
well treated, with Orange Nassau firmly put in his place in a 5-runner affair
last time, and hailing from a yard whose runners of late have been showing
worrying signs that all isn’t well. He’s sure to start favourite as his record
is less patchy than that of his rivals, but I can’t bring myself to back a
Charlie Longsdon horse at present (only one of the yard’s last 10 runners over
jumps has been beaten less than 25 lengths, which is a serious concern for such
a fastidious operation). Derwen Pride has been beaten on all 5 starts at Ffos
las, and hails from a yard which is going through its now-typical winter drought.
Peter Bowen’s last winner came in the shape of Sizing Santiago at Newbury in
November, and he went through a similar barren spell at the same time last
year.
Material
Boy and Russian Song both ran poorly last time, and get a change of headgear
today, with the former trying both a visor and tongue tie for the first time,
and the latter having his usual cheekpieces swapped for blinkers. That could be
enough to spark either or both to life, but the one who makes most appeal is Callhimwhatyouwant. Dr Richard Newland
has his team in excellent order, with Ardkilly Witness running a blinder to be
second in the Grade 2 Albert Bartlett Hurdle at Haydock yesterday, and all of
his runners in February running at least respectably, and he has developed a
reputation as having a very keen eye for recruits from the pointing field. He
may well have unearthed another one with this son of Old Vic out of a
full-sister to Pertemps Hurdle third Alexanderthegreat, with their dam herself
a half-sister to Fissure Seal, who won that contest under its former guise. It’s
fair to say that Callhimwhatyouwant
is bred to stay extremely well, and his ventures over hurdles for his current
yard are likely to be eclipsed given this switch to fences and step up in trip.
The selections was known as a bold-jumping front runner in his time between the
flags, and he wasn’t out of the first 2 in 5 completed starts in the 2011/12
campaign. The highlight, arguably, was an unlucky defeat (rider lost irons at
last before rallying strongly) at the hands of the very useful Carthalawn at
Horse & Jockey last March. That came in an open contest, and while assessing
point form can be fraught with danger, that looks easily good enough form to
win a race like this. A return to forcing tactics looks on the cards today, and
that is expected to coincide with a change of fortune.
The
“Sun Trade Windows” Handicap Chase at 15:20 provides another opportunity to
take advantage of the Ferdy Murphy to Tom George angle which has provided
several winners this season. The Crossed Fingers Partnership have seen their
colours carried to success by Big Fella Thanks, Desperate Dex and Gods Own this
season, with the first pair both making the move south to Tom George from
Murphy’s Leyburn yard. The latest of their horses to make that transition is Seigneur des Bois, who scored off today’s
handicap mark at Southwell in April 2011 before losing his way somewhat last
season. Still only a 7-y-o, he’s open to improvement, and looks potentially
well treated on his current mark. That win came of good ground, but it was more
likely a return to form for the yard, rather than underfoot conditions which
was responsible, and he’s bred to need deeper ground and a longer trip, both of
which he gets today. If his new trainer can coax him back to the form he showed
over fences as a youngster for Adrien Lacombe, then he would look something of
a good thing.
Recommended Bets:
Back Callhimwhatyouwant in the 14:50 Ffos Las @ [7.2] (NAP)
Back Seigneur des Bois in the 15:20
FFos Las @ [7.0] (NB)
Friday, 15 February 2013
Leave It To Steve
With the Cheltenham Festival now only
a few weeks away, expect to spend the next fortnight or so being bamboozled by “stats”
which will purportedly save you the trouble of looking at the reams of form on
offer for the all-important big races.
Some of this information will prove thought-provoking, while some, such
as the nugget I found last year telling me that “19 of the last 20 winners of
race X either raced prominently or were held up” are utter gibberish. The
fundamental truth is that the primary job in finding winners is to identify the
best horse, and to consider backing said horse when the price dictates.
That looks to be the case in the 15.20
at Fakenham today where Viva Steve
really ought to be a clear favourite, but is disputing that spot with Sound
Investment. Mick Channon’s son of Flemensfirth has much the best piece of form
on offer, and he pulled well clear of the others when second to If In Doubt at
Towcester last month. The winner that day had split a pair of subsequent scorers
in a strong Folkestone event previously, and plenty of those at Towcester look
better than the dead wood they appeared on the day. Race times can be hard to gauge
over jumps, but the time of that 2m event compared very favourably with the
C&D handicap on the card, and it’s undoubtedly solid. Towcester and
Fakenham could hardly be more different, but given that Viva Steve was a promising second on his sole bumper start at
Fontwell’s tight circuit, so that can hardly be used as a stick to beat him
with. The step up in trip is sure to suit on both pedigree and racecourse evidence,
and the standard he sets already surpasses the average required to win a race
of this nature according to historical evidence. The doubters will point out
that Channon is winnerless in the last fortnight, whereas Paul Nicholls (Sound
Investment) and David Pipe (Barney Cool) have had 17 winners between them in
the same timeframe. This would only be relevant if Channon’s team was genuinely
out of sorts, but the selection ran just a couple of weeks ago and outstripped
today’s rivals in terms of performance, while Channon’s last 4 runners have all
made the frame, with one of them denied in the very last stride. Sound
Investment is undoubtedly a danger, as he was well on top when winning a lesser
race at Taunton last time, and his third to Puffin Billy at Newbury reads well.
It’s worth bearing in mind that the runner-up that day was a massive outsider,
though, and the form is less solid that it first appears.
Sometimes the best horse isn’t the
best bet in a race, though, and it would be a stretch to call Arachnophobia a standout in the 15.05
at Lingfield, particularly given a losing run stretching back to March 2010. He
did bounce back to form behind a well-handicapped sort at Kempton last time,
and is the most obvious front runner in today’s line-up. With most of his main
rivals regularly being held up, this looks a good opportunity for Martin Bosley’s
gelding to return to winning ways, or at the very least trade at short odds in
the run. He’s traded at less than half his BSP on 4 of his last 5 starts, and
while not the force of old, it’s worth remembering that he has spent most of
his career competing at a higher level than this. Of the others to have led
recently, Baby Dottie did too much in front over 6f last time, and wouldn’t
have obvious claims of staying this longer trip if ridden in the same fashion,
while Hereford Boy is traditionally held up, and a flirtation with forcing the
pace over 1m here last time saw him finish weakly, so it remains to be seen
whether that experiment is continued. Arachnophobia
has gone well when held up before, so doesn’t have to lead, but it seems
such tactics will need to be under serious consideration again, given how
effective they proved at Kempton.
I’m not one to tip odds-on shots, but
the 4/5 on offer for Discovery Bay
in Lingfield’s opener looks much too big, and while the drop to a seller looks an
odd move, it’s perhaps significant that Charlie Swan also has him entered in a
much more competitive handicap on
tomorrow’s card. He looks a banker for
multiple bets, for those so inclined.
Recommended Bets:
Back Viva Steve in the 15:20 Fakenham
@ [3.45] (NAP)
Back Arachnophobia in the 15:05 Lingfield
@ [7.0] (NB)
Tuesday, 12 February 2013
Crawfords Can Take The Biscuit
As usual, the imperious David Cleary
will be a hard act to follow after tipping wide-margin winner White Fusion (BSP
13.0) at Catterick yesterday. I can’t hope to match that, but there are a
couple of races at Ayr which provide opportunities from a betting perspective.
The name of Crawford has been
synonymous with baking in Scotland for 200 years, but it may be the
Co.Antrim-based Crawford family who take home a large share of the crumbs
today. The operation headed up by licence holder Stuart really is a family
affair, as he is ably assisted not only by brother Steven, who rides many of
the yard’s runners, but also by siblings Ben and Ross at their base near Larne.
The Crawford boys have made a speciality of plundering bumpers in Scotland and
the north of England, landing 14 wins from just 46 runners in that sphere in the
last 5 seasons, with a further 16 being placed. A reminder of the potency of
their bumper operation was served when Legacy Gold scored under a penalty at
Catterick yesterday. Further success awaits in the closing race at Ayr today,
as Fine Rightly (17:00) bids to
follow up an impressive C&D success on his debut last month. On that
occasion, the son of Alflora stayed on too strongly for Jim Goldie’s Caledonia
to win with a bit up his sleeve. Caledonia did little to dent the fine
impression created when finishing a creditable third in the listed bumper at
Newbury on Saturday won by Oscar Rock. Ballyben, a further 11 lengths back in
third, was another who had scored on debut, and caught the eye when placed on
his hurdles debut at Newcastle recently, adding further solidity to the form. Fine Rightly will get plenty of
assistance from the saddle, with Steven holding the Fegentri amateur riders’
world title for both Flat and jumps racing. He rode The Cool Guy to win the Grade
2 Aintree bumper in 2005, and also enjoyed big-race success in the Irish
Cambridgeshire as an apprentice for Pat Flynn back in the 90’s and is as astute
a rider in this sphere as any, adopting tactics to suit his mount, rather than
his ego. Both Lucinda Russell and David
Pipe do well in similar races, and their representatives, Island Confusion and
Hidden Discounts, merit respect, but the selection looks a cut above the
average winner of such events, and can withhold all challenges.
The Crawford have more family business
in the 21f novice chase at 15:25, as Fine Rightly’s half-sister Aibrean returns from an absence to make
her debut over the larger obstacles. This former point winner showed near-useful
form over hurdles, winning a competitive handicap here before running respectably
behind Dynaste in a valuable fixed-brush affair at Haydock in November 2011.
Not seen since, it would be easy to assume that she’ll need this run, but the
trainer was at pains to book Tony McCoy for the ride, only for the champ to be
claimed for likely warm favourite Tap Night. Jason Maguire is an able
substitute, and while Tap Night will be hard to beat, it was notable how easy
Barry Geraghty was on the horse when running below market expectations at
Musselburgh last time, and punters backing McCoy are painfully aware that “never-say-die-Tony”
has too often looked like “never-say-go-Tony” on his employer’s Festival-bound
runners in recent weeks, making Lucinda Russell’s charge an unappealing bet
with his handicap mark still in the balance. The Tracey Shuffle is the only
other runner to consider, and is worthy of the utmost respect, but an absence
since overjumping on his chase bow at Perth (ostensibly well backed, but that
support was in the face of an alarming drift on pre-race favourite Carlito
Brigante) is a niggling concern. All in all, Aibrean looks worth chancing at the odds.
Recommended Bets:
Back Fine Rightly in the 17:00 Ayr
@ [2.78] (NAP)
Back Aibrean in the 15:25 Ayr @ [6.0] (NB)
Sunday, 10 February 2013
Clouds Can Provide Silver Lining
Heavy rain has put today’s sole jumps
meeting in jeopardy, but every cloud has a silver lining they say, and with
Exeter passing its second inspection at 10AM, the way is paved for Oliver
Sherwood to have a profitable time of things. Star of the stable is the
handsome Puffin Billy, who ought to
get the better of what looks a straight march with Tolworth Hurdle winner
Melodic Rendezvous, although that is a tight race to call strictly on the
figures, and Puffin Billy makes scant betting appeal at 4/6. Rouge Et Blanc is another from the yard
to come here at the top of his game, and will take the beating if over the
exertions which saw him score at Huntingdon in mid-week, but the best bet is Many Clouds, who lines up in the
opening novice hurdle at 14:00. Of 3 last-time-out winners, Just A Par is
respected most, but the selection achieved more when finishing a good second
under a penalty at Wetherby last time, and would have finished much closer but
for conceding a big lead to eventual winner Up And Go. At level weights with
his main rivals today, and with waiting tactics likely to prove no stumbling
block at this stiff track, Many Clouds can
get back to winning ways.
Kim Bailey has never made any bones
about the regard in which he’s held Harry
Topper (15:00), and the son of Sir Harry Lewis is a short price to win a
competitive graduation chase today. It’s worth looking at the prices he’s
traded in running when winning, though, and highs of 100 and 1,000 show that
it’s his tenacity which has won him races rather than sheer class. His best
effort over hurdles also saw him stay on from an impossible position, and he’s
recommended as a pre-race lay at odds of 2.2. Those taking the chance on laying
him may want to back him back at bigger odds in running to guarantee a profit
(he’s yet to run in a race where he hasn’t hit significantly bigger in the
run), but there is enough opposition in today’s field for a straight lay to be
justified.
Recommended Bets:
Back Many Clouds in the 14:00 Exeter @ [3.2] (NAP)
Lay Harry Topper in the 15:00 Exeter @ [2.20] (NB)
Friday, 8 February 2013
Battle of The Handicappers
Don McCain rarely goes without a
winner when sending horses on the short trip to Bangor, a course which was
favoured by his legendary father before him, and it will be a surprise if he
has to wait long to add to the burgeoning list of McCain family winners at the charming
Welsh track. The opening contest at 13:30 sees him saddle Blackwater King in a race where the respective handicappers at
Timeform and the BHA take wildly differing views. The BHA assessor was so impressed by Golden
Hoof’s defeat of Lord Protector and Beckhani at Sandown in December, that he
awarded the Oscar gelding a lofty mark of 135, and when he contested the Grade
1 Tolworth Hurdle over the same C&D last time, he was the highest rated
horse in the contest. Timeform were less impressed by the Sandown win, noting
that the race was run at no more than a crawl, and that Golden Hoof merely had
too much toe for a couple of plodding stayers. Subsequent results suggest the
truth is closer to the latter analysis, with Golden Hoof readily outclassed in
the Tolworth, and his earlier victims not doing a great deal to boost the form
subsequently. Golden Hoof has been dropped 5 lb, but is still considered to be
almost a stone superior to McCain’s runner by the BHA, which looks at odds with
the evidence of the racecourse to date, as Blackwater
King was an excellent second to Renoyr in a handicap at Doncaster last
time, and the winner has run well in a better race at Wetherby in recent days.
Timeform, in fact, reckon that far from being inferior to his chief rival, Blackwater King is actually a better
horse to the tune of 8 lbs, and yet is receiving weight from Golden Hoof, who
has a double penalty to carry. I do have a slight concern about the selection’s
tendency to race freely, and he didn’t see things out as well as Renoyr having
tanked along last time, but I expect him to be too good for the topweight on
today’s terms, and he should be the one trading at Evens, and not the other way
around. Either way, there is plenty of professional pride to be won and lost,
making this one of the most intriguing contests of the whole day.
The 14:35 is another interesting
novice hurdle featuring leading hunter My Flora, who has moved to McCain from
Sheila Crow for a hurdling campaign, but she was rather disappointing on her
first try over the smaller obstacles, and is passed over now. Midnight Appeal
is another who has done well as a chaser, and will be popular here given his
creditable third in the Grade 2 Bristol Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham in
December. That contest has lost some of its lustre since, however, with
Coneygree losing his unbeaten record and runner-up Aerial running a poor race
at Musselburgh last weekend. Dungeel appears the McCain first-string, and is
respected, but the one who makes most appeal is the unexposed O’Faolains Boy, who I had the pleasure
of seeing in the flesh at Chepstow on Welsh National day. A rangy, chasing type
in appearance, he jumped well in a dispute of the lead, and didn’t need to be
asked any serious questions to pull away from his rivals in the straight for a
comfortable win. He’ll stay 3m on that evidence (bred to do so in any case), and
looks open to more than average improvement. Patrick Corbett takes over from A
P McCoy, and the partnership look rock solid to my eyes.
Recommended Bets:
Back Blackwater King in the 13:30 Bangor
@ [2.70] (NAP)
Back O’Faolains Boy in the 14:35 Bangor @ [3.60] (NB)
Wednesday, 6 February 2013
Life's A Breeze At Ludlow
Racing over jumps at Carlisle and
Ludlow today throws up a few betting opportunities, but arguably none better
than Shootin The Breeze in the
hunter chase at the Shropshire venue (16:25). The Ray Humphreys-owned gelding
has done the rounds in his short career, showing plenty of promise for David
Pipe before being transferred by his owner to the yard of Colm Murphy, for whom
he took the scalp of the highly-touted Gagewell Flyer when winning a beginners’
chase at Thurles a year ago. He impressed me with his scope that day, and again
when a creditable fourth on his handicap bow at Navan in March. It’s easy to
forgive a poor run when badly in need of his debut for Jane Western in a better
class hunter at Newbury last month, and that should put an edge on him. He’s
yet to be tried over 3m, and stamina may seem an issue given his win came over
2m, but he’s quite stoutly bred, being by Alderbrook out of an Old Vic mare. As
a lightly-raced 8-y-o, he remains open to improvement over fences, and is worth
backing to upset likely favourite Surenaga. Phil Rowley’s gelding had a
disappointing campaign last year, but did bounce back to form between the flags
when teaming up with Jane Williams and refitted with blinkers in May. His very
best form has come on lively ground, though, and he struggled in the mud on his
return at Haydock last term.
At Carlisle, the Pertemps Qualifier (16:05)
is arguably the most intriguing contest, and the horse which catches the eye is
Jonjo O’Neill’s Shutthefrontdoor.
Currently rated 135 by the official handicapper, it could be argued that he won’t
want to blow such a potentially lenient mark. A look back at last year’s final
of this event at Cheltenham shows that he would have missed the cut, and he
really needs to win, or run well in defeat, in order to get the mark he needs
to ensure a run. So far, the son of Accordion has been campaigned at around 2m,
but he is bred to improve for a longer trip, and while 25f is quite a step up,
it’s almost certain that there’s a lot more to come from him. Knockara Beau won
this event in 2011, and comes here after an excellent fourth in the Cleeve
Hurdle. That shows he’s a threat, but he was allowed to steal a march by the
starter at Cheltenham, and is flattered by the bare form of that effort. He
faces competition for the lead here from Don McCain’s Corrin Wood, and a
contested pace will count against the pair.
Recommended Bets:
Back Shootin The Breeze in the 16:25
Ludlow @ [8.2] (NAP)
Back Shutthefrontdoor in the 16:05 Carlisle @ [4.4] (NB)
Monday, 4 February 2013
Not Folly To Back Mulholland Mare
Jump racing on goodish ground is
something of a novelty of late, but that is the prospect at Doncaster this
afternoon when the key race is the listed 32red Hurdle in which Champion Hurdle
contenders Darlan and Rock On Ruby clash. The move away from soft ground will
suit both, for all Darlan took the
Christmas Hurdle last time in gluepot conditions. He’s my idea of the likeliest
winner, but that is reflected in a market price shy of even money, so I’ll look
elsewhere for the best bet.
The closing handicap hurdle at 16:35
is a very ordinary affair despite the large field, and few can be seriously
fancied. The most interesting runner is Jonjo O’Neill’s Mississippi
Blues, who makes his handicap debut. Such runners from Jackdaws Castle have a
habit of garnering lenient marks before showing much improved form, but anyone
looking to back this one would need to ignore his latest outing at Huntingdon
when he weakened abruptly before the race took shape in earnest. I’m inclined
to look elsewhere, and Fran’s Folly
makes plenty of appeal on her best form. She took time to find her feet last
season, but ended the campaign with 2 meritorious performances, and was still
in with every chance when falling at Wincanton in March. In need of the run
when down the field on her return at Fontwell, she will strip fitter now, and
will also appreciate the return to a sounder surface. With improvement to come,
she looks a sporting bet at current odds.
Vintage Star looks an obvious starting
point in the novice chase at 14:25, given his proven ability over fences and he
looks the only obvious pace setter in today’s field. On second glance, however,
he may struggle to contain Ruben Cotter
who makes his chase debut for the in-form Paul Nicholls yard. His point win is
a sign that he will outstrip hurdling ability now tackling regulation fences,
and the horse he beat that day is none other than Drinmore Chase runner-up
Dedigout. Ruben Cotter has the physique to suggest that he will make the grade
as a chaser, and he shaped much better than the bare result when mid-field in a
competitive handicap hurdle at Cheltenham’s Open meeting in November. In
receipt of 7 lbs from Vintage Star, he’s expected to come out on top, and
really should be trading as favourite.
Recommended Bets:
Back Fran’s Folly in the 16:35 Doncaster
@ [10.0] (NAP)
Back Ruben Cotter in the 14:25 Doncaster
@ [3.05] (NB)
Saturday, 2 February 2013
Bank On Young's Veteran
Veterans’ chases have become quite a
welcome addition to the jumping calendar, with several old stagers allowed a
more realistic chance of being competitive against horses of similar ilk, and
Sandown stages such an affair on its all-chase card at 15:00. Several of these
are sharply in decline, and neither Mad Max nor Gwanako look quite the horses
they were when in the first flush of youth. Pigeon Island is another who has
tasted glory on the biggest stage, but has had a lot of racing for one of his
age, and the one who looks most likely to rediscover his best is Laura Young’s Tail of The Bank, who is lightly raced
and is only having his twelfth outing over obstacles today. He was a promising
novice in 2010/11, when runner-up in the valuable Greatwood Gold Cup at
Newbury, and has hinted that all his old ability remains in 2 runs this term.
At Chepstow last time, he made a threatening move on the turn for home before a
residual lack of fitness told, and a drop of 4 lbs for that run looks quite
generous in the circumstances. He does need to prove that he can handle a
right-handed track, as all his runs have come anti-clockwise, but that’s a risk
worth taking for a horse who may, rather strangely for a race like this, still
have his best days ahead of him.
In the following contest, it’s easy to
give chances to most of the field, but the more I look at the race, the more I’m
inclined to believe that Mister Hyde
remains on a lenient mark despite taking what looked a harsh 13-lb rise for
winning at Kempton last time. He proved on that occasion that he truly stays 3m
(had been a weak finisher in the past), and I was particularly taken with how
easily he seemed to jump out of very deep ground there. Condition will again
place a premium on accurate jumping, and in that regard, Mister Hyde looks solid – more so than Summery Justice, who would
be my idea of the fly in the ointment, but can still make the occasional bad
error. Brackloon High had no excuses behind the selection at Christmas, but has
paid him a handsome compliment by winning over the same C&D next time, and
that form was further boosted when Politeo, a place in front of Noel Chance’s
charge at Kempton, was successful at Wincanton during the week. If those form lines can be believed, then Mister Hyde is still a step ahead of
the assessor. Let’s hope so.
Recommended Bets:
Back Tail of The Bank in the 15:00 Sandown @ [5.6] (NAP)
Back Mister Hyde in the 15:35 Sandown
@ [5.9] (NB)
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